Thursday’s Mets vs. Nationals matchup is the final tilt of a three-game series in New York.
Michael Soroka is scheduled to pitch for Washington while Kodai Senga should get the nod for New York.
Nationals at Mets prediction, preview
Michael Soroka was a control pitcher early in his career, but then tried to get more strikeouts, which resulted in spiking his walk rate. Last season with the White Sox, he posted a 24.2% strikeout rate, but that came with a 12.7% walk rate. For perspective, the walk rate was 6.2% and 5.8% across the first two seasons of his career. Through 37 innings this season, the strikeout rate is 22.9% but the walk rate has plummeted to 4.6%. His ERA is 4.78 but the FIP is much lower at 4.1. While the hard-hit rate is 41.7%, the barrel rate is a miniscule 3.7%.
As for splits, lefties have had much more success against Soroka, as five of his six home runs allowed have been hit by them. The FIP is 5.17 vs. 2.7 against righties. Soroka has been much better at home than on the road.
Soroka just shut out the Rangers in six innings with seven strikeouts. Prior to that, he allowed at least two earned runs in six straight starts, with four earned runs in three of those. This will be the first time seeing the Mets this season for Soroka.
Against right-handed pitching, the Mets have struck out at the 24th-highest rate while having the fifth-best ISO. The wOBA is fifth-best in MLB.
Kodai Senga came to the states like an angry Godzilla, striking out batters with no regard for collateral damage. The strikeout rate was 29.1% during his rookie season but the walk rate was 11.1%. He was averaging 95.9 mph on the fastball. After returning from injury, the fastball velocity is down one mph while the strikeout rate is down to 23.7% through 68 innings. The walk rate is still an issue at 10.9%. That said, the ERA is only 1.59, the third-lowest in MLB. He’s been fortunate, though, as the strand rate is 87.5% and the FIP is much higher at 3.29.
Senga has been deadly to righties, but lefties have slashed .242/.355/.408 with a 4.25 FIP. He’s been good both at home and one the road.
In 12 starts, Senga has allowed more than two earned runs just once — May 19 in Boston when he allowed three earned runs. Senga has allowed fewer than two earned runs eight times, with five of those coming as shutouts. Senga faced Washington on April 25 and went six innings while striking out five, walking two, and allowing two earned runs.
The Nationals have struck out at the 25th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 12th in ISO. The wOBA is 18th-best.
As for bullpens, the Nationals have the 26th-lowest FIP while the Mets have the lowest.
Nationals at Mets Pick, Best Bet
I think Senga continues his offense-neutering ways while the bullpen shouldn’t allow any leaks. It’s the other side that I have questions about. I feel like the 8.5 run total is a smidge too high, but maybe the Mets have an offensive explosion? It’s well within the range of outcomes.
