This is the final game of a three-game series in Minnesota.
Patrick Corbin is scheduled to pitch for Texas while Bailey Ober should get the nod for Minnesota.
Rangers at Twins prediction, preview
Patrick Corbin is still averaging 91 mph on the fastball. He is still posting a sub-20% strikeout rate. But he is no longer the laughingstock, pinata or stack-against pitcher in MLB. In the four prior seasons in Washington, the ERA was over five in every season, including a 6.31 number in 2022. Sure, he got unlucky to a degree in some of those seasons, as the FIP was sub-five in two of those seasons, but he was essentially a sacrificial innings eater. So far through 61.1 innings with Texas, he has been anything but, posting a 3.52 ERA. That deal with the devil is working out because the BABIP is only .249 while the strand rate is 83.1%. But, but, but….the average exit velocity is only 88.3 mph while the hard hit rate is 35.8%, so it hasn’t all been luck.
As for splits, righties have been more successful against him and seven of 10 home runs have been hit by them. Seven of the 10 home runs have also been allowed on the road.
Corbin has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start this season. Last season, he allowed more than three earned runs 15 times, with four starts of at least seven earned runs and a high of 10! This will be the first time seeing Minnesota this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Twins have struck out at the fifth-highest rate while having the 20th-best ISO. The wOBA is 17th-best in MLB.
Bailey Ober hasn’t been spectacular and he hasn’t been terrible, but he hasn’t been just right either. Satisfactory? The ERA is 3.78 while the FIP is 3.99. The BB/9 is sub-2.0 while the HR/9 is 1.17. The strikeout rate is only 18.3%, though.
There are no discernible splits. Lefties are batting .271 while righites are at .270. Lefties have hit five home runs while righties have hit four. At home, batters have hit .264 with five home runs while on the road those numbers are .279 and four home runs.
Up to this point, it’s been a bookend kind of season. In his most recent start against Toronto, Ober allowed five earned runs. In his first start of the season in St. Louis, he allowed eight earned runs. In between those two starts, he’s allowed three earned runs twice with the rest at two or fewer. This will be the first time seeing Texas this season.
The Rangers have struck out at the 16th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 20th in ISO. The wOBA is 28th-best.
As for bullpens, Texas has the 17th-lowest FIP while Minnesota has the seventh-lowest.
Rangers at Twins Pick, Best Bet
I can’t believe I’m writing this, but I think Corbin continues to pitch well. On the flip side, Ober has shown the capacity to get blown up, but he usually doesn’t beat himself, which lowers the possibility. In the opener of this series, Texas won 16-4. I am not expecting a similar offensive output in this one.
