This is the final outing of a three-game series in Colorado between the Rockies and visiting San Francisco Giants.
Hayden Birdsong is scheduled to pitch for San Francisco while Antonio Senzatela should get the nod for Colorado.
Giants at Rockies prediction, preview
Hayden Birdsong has pitched 42.1 innings this season but only made four starts. He was in the bullpen to start the season, but injuries and Jordan Hicks getting demoted paved the way for Birdsong to enter the starting rotation. Last season was his first taste of the majors, and he posted an 11.5% swinging strike rate and 27.9% strikeout rate. The walk rate was 13.7%, which isn’t surprising as most young pitchers struggle with control in the beginning. That control is much improved this season as the walk rate is 9.3%, but the strikeout rate has also come down to 24.7%. Birdsong is averaging 96 mph on the fastball and has done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard, allowing only four home runs. The barrel rate is 7.7% but the hard hit rate is 43.6%. The 2.55 ERA is not supported by the 3.59 FIP.
On the surface it looks like Birdsong has difficulties with lefties, but the BABIP is .351 so there has been some plain-old bad luck. He’s allowed two home runs each to righties and lefties while the FIP is 3.94 vs. righties compared to 3.29 against righties. There has been no discernible home/road difference.
In the five starts, the range has been 4.1 innings to 5.1 innings. He’s allowed zero, one, two and three earned runs in those starts. He did face Colorado at home in a relief role, going two innings and striking out one batter while allowing only one hit.
Against right-handed pitching, the Rockies have struck out at the second-highest rate while having the 15th-best ISO. The wOBA is 29th-best in MLB.
Antonio Senzatela is the gift that keeps on giving for fantasy baseball. The ERA is 6.68 while the K-BB% is 4.0%. He’s allowed 11 home runs in 62 innings. Now, Senzatela has been unlucky as the BABIP is .385 and the FIP is 5.38. That said, the hard-hit rate is 45.7%, his barrel rate is 10.2%, and the average exit velocity is 90.7 mph. The swinging strike rate is 7.0% while the contact rate in the zone is 91.4%, the third-worst mark in MLB.
Both righties and lefties have crushed Senzatela. Eight of the 11 home runs have been hit by righties. Coors Field is tough for most pitchers — that’s been no exception for Senzatela — but he’s actually been worse on the road! The FIP is 6.25 compared to 4.68 at home. Six of his 11 home runs have been served up on the road. Senzatela faced the Giants back on May 2 in San Francisco. He went five innings while allowing four earned runs, walking two and struck out four.
The Giants have struck out at the 11th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 22nd in ISO. The wOBA is 23rd-best.
As for bullpens, San Francisco has the fourth-lowest FIP while Colorado has the 29th-lowest.
Giants at Rockies, Best Bet
Coors Field always has elevated run totals, and for good reasons. I think the Giants will do most of the heavy lifting against one of the worst pitching staffs in all of baseball.
