On Wednesday night, the WNBA’s newest star returns from injury as Paige Bueckers returns to the court for the Dallas Wings. While the team hasn’t found its stride at 1-9, they travel to take on a contender in the desert as they face off against Satou Sabally and the 6-4 Phoenix Mercury on Wednesday night at 10 p.m. EST.
Here’s a Mercury vs. Wings prediction and pick for the late-slate action.
Mercury vs. Wings prediction, pick
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Mercury as a seven-point favorite at home tonight with -278 odds to win on the Moneyline. They’re a heavy favorite against a young Wings team in the midst of their building phase with +225 odds on the Moneyline to pull off the upset. The game total also sits at 167 combined points.
The Mercury aren’t quite in the top-tier contender category in the early weeks of the season, but they’re certainly in the mix to make some noise come playoff time. They’re 10th in points per game and don’t score particularly efficiently, but they possess enough firepower to get the job done behind a formidable defense. The Mercury rank fourth in opponent points per game and force the most turnovers of any team with a very disruptive defense.
Satou Sabally leads the team in multiple categories with 20.5 PPG and 7.7 rebounds, followed by Alyssa Thomas who ranks second in each with 15.2 PPG and 7.6 boards. Thomas actually paces the Mercury with 8.0 assists per night as well, completing her typical trifecta of all-around production.
The Wings look to snap a five-game losing streak, and with Bueckers back in the lineup, there’s an outside chance they can make it happen tonight. They’re actually fifth in points per game but are ninth in both FG% and 3P%. They do rank fifth in rebounding, better than the Mercury, but the defense ranks third-worst in the WNBA in opponent points per game and they force nearly four fewer turnovers per outing than Phoenix.
Unsurprisingly, Arike Ogunbowale sits first on the team in scoring with 16.3 PPG. However, that mark does sit noticeably lower than her career average of 20.4 and her shooting numbers are also career-lows. Bueckers has only played six contests to start her rookie season but averages 14.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 6.7 assists — the first-overall pick should only improve as time goes on. DiJonai Carrington and Maddy Siegrist each pitch in double-digit points as well, but the team will take some time to gel as they reintegrate Bueckers into the offense.
So what’s the best bet for tonight’s outing? It’s simple to say the Mercury should win and pick them on the Moneyline, but the odds aren’t worth it there at -278. Instead, I’m going to zig a bit where many folks would zag. The Mercury should win thanks to their experience and defensive effort, but I actually do think the Wings can score enough to stick around, especially since Phoenix doesn’t have an explosive offense. There’s a little risk involved, but I’m eyeing Wings +7 at -112 odds.
Top Pick: DAL Wings +7 (-112)
