The 2025 NBA Finals remain knotted at one game apiece. While the Indiana Pacers summoned some late comeback magic in Game 1’s victory, the Oklahoma City Thunder delivered a dominant performance in Game 2 to pull back even. Wednesday’s Game 3 will certainly prove pivotal in deciding the outcome of this series.
Here’s a Pacers vs. Thunder prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Game 3 of the NBA Finals.
Pacers vs. Thunder prediction, pick
The Thunder hit the road for the first time this series, but oddsmakers don’t appear concerned with the change of scenery. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Thunder are 5.5-point favorites with -218 odds on the Moneyline. The Pacers have come-court advantage but are a +180 underdog on the Moneyline with the game total set at 228.5.
It’s pretty clear that Oklahoma City is the better team — saying anything otherwise would be a flat-out lie. While the Pacers are talented, they’ve barely led at all in this series. Looking at win probability charts shows a lot of Thunder blue, sans the final 0.3 seconds of Game 1 in which Tyrese Haliburton’s game-winner led to a stunning victory on the road. Indiana generally refuses to die in close games with a funny way of keeping things competitive, but they’re not as deep as their opponent and can’t quite match the top-end star power of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Thunder fully snapped back to their usual selves in Game 2 of the series, displaying one of the NBA’s top defenses and generally just putting the ball through the hoop at will. The defense also held Haliburton to a horrendous start with just a handful of points in the first half — an issue which the point guard says he needs to address moving forward. His slow start ultimately doomed the team to dig themselves out of a pretty significant hole, and if he’s now playing through a leg injury as has been suggested, the Pacers will have a more difficult time trying to keep up.
One key area to watch s the rebounding battle. The Pacers outrebounded their opponent 56-39 in Game 1 of this series, but the Thunder worked harder on the glass in Game 2 with a 43-35 edge. These extra possessions made all the difference in Indiana’s slim 111-110 Game 1 win while also allowing the Thunder to build a larger lead in their 123-107 Game 2 victory. Indiana absolutely cannot win these games while pulling down just 35 boards, so Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam must step up in the frontcourt to compete with Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, and the Thunder.
The Thunder should handle Game 3 well, even on the road. They recaptured the momentum last time out and their large lead for most of the contest only began to shrink once Haliburton found his form late in the contest. If he starts slow again, it’ll likely be a Thunder blowout, but it’s easy to see the visitors covering the 5.5-point spread regardless.
Top Pick: OKC Thunder -5.5 (-108)
