Only three teams have won their division for four-plus years running: the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccos have expertly weathered Tom Brady’s departure, smoothly transitioning to the Baker Mayfield era and taking control of the NFC South. It’s unusual for the South to be so one-note and generally weak; gone are the days of the Sean Payton Saints and the Cam Newton Panthers. So, the question becomes: can any team take the crown from the Buccaneers?
The Field
Here’s how the odds break down for the NFC South division race as of now:
To the surprise of nobody, the Buccaneers are the favorites. Despite playing a first-place schedule, they’re primed to run it back. And the reasoning is sound, given the projected bottom two teams.
The New Orleans Saints have a new head coach and quarterback. It stands to reason that the rebuild is only beginning in New Orleans, and despite a last-place schedule, it could be a long season in the Bayou.
Things are looking up for the Carolina Panthers. Bryce Young played some good football in the second half of the season, giving them plenty of hope. They’re building up weapons on offense, with first-round pick Tetairoa McMillan set to lead the way. The defense has potential, especially with DC Ejiro Evero at the helm. But I have a hard time seeing a 5-12 team make the jump all the way to being division winners.
The real battle is between the Bucs and the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta nearly pulled off the division last season despite having a 36-year-old statue named Kirk Cousins in the pocket for 14 games. All signs point to Michael Penix Jr. fully taking the reins in his second season. While his throwing needs work, his extra mobility will boost the run game and give Atlanta an extra measure of unpredictability. It made some upgrades to the defense through the draft, but it’s unclear if this will be enough to unseat the Buccaneers and their grip on the South.
The Pick
Atlanta Falcons To Win The NFC South +240
I don’t have much reason to doubt the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They managed to keep the team mostly intact and replaced their losses well. This is more about my belief in what the Falcons are building.
They have a formidable offensive line, a true WR1 in Drake London, and an incredibly talented RB in Bijan Robinson. It’s a great ecosystem for Michael Penix Jr. to hit the ground running. If he can avoid big mistakes while making plays with his legs and through the air, this could be an offense to be reckoned with.
I like how Atlanta double-dipped at defensive end in the draft. Not only did they take Jalon Walker with its original pick, they traded back into the first to take James Pearce Jr. Pass rush from anyone not named Grady Jarrett has been a problem for years in Atlanta. If just one of those guys can make an impact from the jump, this defense starts to creep towards average. If both start out hot, it could be a very strong group.
Both sides of the ball being average could be enough to win the division. If one is above average, I love the Falcons’ chances. Atlanta has too much value to pass up here.
