Major League Baseball has wall-to-wall action this Wednesday with all 30 teams taking the field. Eight games are on tap for the afternoon as getaway games, with seven games under the lights. Let’s take a look at the evening matchups, including a nightcap at Coors Field, and pinpoint some juicy home run props to help us get through this hump day. Considering the many factors that go into home runs, including matchups, environment and players’ current form, my top three home run props on the board for Wednesday are Kerry Carpenter, Rafael Devers and Wilmer Flores, with a bonus pick on Roman Anthony for good measure.
Just a quick reminder–all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half their games, home run props are never “safe” picks–even if every single factor seems to point to it hitting. The upside to home run props is that the long odds mean big returns when they hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters delivers.
Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be counted on since they are long shots. You can also combine these home run props with other picks into SGP or parlay plays, and I also like to play them at small money in round robin formats to boost their upside even higher if multiple picks go yard.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for today.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Kerry Carpenter to record 1+ home runs (+350)
Carpenter and the Tigers are in Baltimore to take on the Orioles at 6:35 p.m. ET. They’ll go up against Zach Eflin, who has the highest HR/9 of all the starting pitchers scheduled to take the hill under the lights. Given the power potential that Carpenter brings against righties, he’s a great spot for home run props this Wednesday.
Eflin has given up 10 homers in eight starts, and eight of those have been to left-handed hitters, who have a .272 average and .369 wOBA against him this season. He gave up eight home runs in his last four starts including four to the Nationals and three to the Red Sox with lefties Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, C.J. Abrams and Cal Raleigh (switch-hitter batting left-handed) going yard against him.
Carpenter has the advantage of hitting either at or near the top of the order against righties and has hit 13 homers on the season. He has four in his last 18 games while going 14-for-58 (.241) with a 46.5% hard-hit rate. He didn’t start on Tuesday but did have a hard-hit ball in his only plate appearance. “Kerry Bonds” has five barrels over those 18 games with an average exit velocity of 91.3 miles per hour, indicating that his results haven’t quite been as good as his contact merits.
If he continues that contact quality against Eflin, he could deliver a smash this Wednesday to start the night out strong. He went 2-for-5 against Eflin in his career, and one of those hits was a home run.
Rafael Devers to record 1+ home runs (+225)
To attack a Zack of a different spelling, let’s head up the East Coast from Baltimore to Boston, where the Red Sox are facing Zack Littell and the Rays.
Littell has given up 17 homers in his 80 2/3 innings this season, and before you think it’s just that his home park is a minor league stadium, 10 of those homers have come on the road. Five of those homers on the road have come against left-handed hitters, who have a .357 wOBA in the split in his 41 1/3 road innings.
Devers and Jarren Duran are both strong options for home run props, and Duran made it into my MLB DFS picks of the day. In my home run props, though, I’m leaning to Devers since he has been so productive lately, especially at home.
Raffy has 16 homers on the season and 10 of those have come at home, where he has a .328 average and .450 wOBA. He hit 11 of those 16 homers off righties and has gone 3-for-10 with a home run in his history against Littell.
After a slow start, Devers has been excellent this season, and despite all the off-field drama, he has seven homers in his last 22 games with a 49.3% hard-hit rate and 13.4% barrel rate over that timeframe. He hasn’t squared up any in this series against the Rays, but he homered twice over the weekend in New York.
Bonus Pick: Red Sox rookie lefty Roman Anthony is on the strong side of those splits as well and hit 10 home runs in 59 games at Triple-A. He had a 57.6% hard-hit rate in Worcester and an average exit velocity of 95 miles per hour. If you want to take a longshot on the rookie to grab his first big league round-tripper, I like the flier play to see if it hits.
Wilmer Flores to record 1+ home runs (+425)
The whole concept behind the Rockies building around Kyle Freeland is that his sinker reduces fly balls and keeps the ball in the yard, even at Coors Field. That hasn’t worked all that well for the 32-year-old lefty this season, though, since he has given up seven homers, including three in his 25 2/3 innings at home. Since he is a lefty, the Giants will likely load up on right-handed hitters for their Wednesday night nightcap at Coors, and of the group, Flores brings excellent value at +425.
Flores has 11 homers in his 65 games this season, hitting .225 with a .326 wOBA. Three of those 11 homers have come when facing lefties, although throughout his career, he has typically been a lefty-smasher. In his last full season in 2023, he hit .303 against lefties with a .389 wOBA.
This year, Flores has spent most of his time at DH. He has hit .274 with a .346 wOBA in his last 25 games after a slow start. He has hit .341 in his games as a visitor in Coors Field during his career with three home runs. He’s typically more a contact-first hitter, but he has shown enough pop to be worth taking a long-shot on this Wednesday night to close out the evening at Coors.
