What an awesome first two games of the NBA Finals we were blessed with. David’s slingshot connecting in Game 1 with 0.3 seconds left to stun the Goliath of the 2024-25 NBA season was epic. In Game 2, order was restored, as the heavily-favored Thunder repelled all attacks to salvage the split.
Now, the series heads to Indiana, and it’s unchartered territory for the Pacers during this playoff run. In the prior three series, the Pacers won the first two games, then lost Game 3, two of those at home. On the flip side, the Thunder lost both Game 3s in Denver and Minnesota.
We saw plenty of adjustments from both teams in Oklahoma City. There will for sure be adjustments to the adjustments on Wednesday. Which team can break the trend and go up 2-1 in the series?
DraftKings Sportsbook has OKC as 5.5-point favorites over IND on the road with the total at 228.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $800K Finals Shootaround [$200K to 1st] (OKC at IND)
Captain’s Picks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($19,500 CP): SGA is the metronome of fantasy. No, he’s the Terminator with a smile. No, he is the speed of light; the passage of time. SGA produces fantasy goodies as consistently as the sun sets and rises. He is the Alpha and Omega of the OKC offense, contributing in every statistical category, which provides a high floor and an access to ceiling. During these playoffs, he’s failed to hit 50 FPTS five times. Two of those were due to a blowout and the other three were in the high 40s. In the first two games against Indiana, he put up 55.25 and 61.75 FPTS. He’s expensive for a reason, as he has the best floor/ceiling combo on the slate, and raw points matter.
UTIL Plays
Pascal Siakam ($9,400): Siakam has somewhat struggled in this series. Sure, he’s had bursts of brilliance, but more often than not, the Thunder defense has made it difficult for the Pacers to get him the ball. But there have been plenty of times when a smaller guard was on him. I think Rick Carlisle makes the proper adjustments to take advantage. Despite the “struggles,” Siakam put up 39.5 and 33.25 FPTS. I think he has a big game in this one with a 50-FPTS burger possibly cooking on the grill.
Aaron Nesmith ($6,400): Nemsmith has converted 7-of-15 from downtown in this series and put up 29 and 21 FPTS. In Game 2, the Thunder had Isaiah Hartenstein guarding him, which allowed Hartenstein to help on any drives. I think Nesmith gets plenty of opportunities to make it rain from downtown, as the Thunder defense has been collapsing to protect the paint. This game is in Indiana, where all the role players for the Pacers should play better. Nesmith is a high-energy player to begin with and I think he flies around like a bezerker in this one.
Alex Caruso ($6,200): It’s a shame that Caruso likely won’t play over 30 minutes, because on a per-minute basis, he’s so, so good. In the two games against Indiana, Caruso has played 28 and 27 minutes. Game 2 was an outlier, as he didn’t rack up any defensive stats but scored 20 points. I don’t expect that line to be replicated on Wednesday. He will more than likely get some steals and blocks. The big question is always the shooting. I don’t think he converts 4-of-8 from downtown again, but he should get plenty of open looks and convert his fair share. In the last three games, Caruso has finished with 26.25, 31.5 and 24.25 FPTS.
Fades
Tyrese Haliburton ($11,000): “There’s a reason why the discourse regarding Haliburton encompasses the entire spectrum. One night, he’s Michaelangelo painting the Sistine Chapel a la the 32-point triple-double with no turnovers in Game 4 against the Knicks, good for 84.5 FPTS. On another night, he could be confused with Ronnie 2K; 12 FPTS in 30 minutes against Cleveland in Game 2. I think Haliburton struggles in this one, as the Thunder have the defenders to cause him serious trouble. In the two regular season meetings against OKC, Haliburton put up 33.5 and 18 FPTS. That’s what I wrote prior to Game 1. Haliburton produced 38.5 and 36.75 FPTS in the first two games of the series. In Game 2, he scored 12 points in the fourth quarter when the game was out of hand. While I do think Haliburton plays better at home, the Thunder are such a good defensive team and are making life difficult for him. This is why I favor going with Siakam in Game 3.
THE OUTCOME
I have the utmost respect for Rick Carlisle, as he’s been a master of adjusting at both ends of the court throughout these playoffs. And I think he opens up some things on offense, especially for Siakam. That said, the Thunder are converging on the stars for Indiana and forcing the role players to win that game. And those role players are going to hit shots, but at the end of the night, there is just no answer for the MVP.
Final Score: Thunder 112, Pacers 108
