Break up the Reds?
It was an underwhelming start to the season for Cincinnati, but the team has turned up the heat in June, winning five straight games entering play on Wednesday. That recent run of success includes yesterday’s 1-0 victory over the Guardians, with Andrew Abbott tossing his first-career complete game.
Conversely, Cleveland has been falling down the standings in the American League as of late, having dropped 10 of its last 15 contests. As is often the case with the Guardians, the team simply isn’t hitting enough — a trend that’s always more apparent the day after getting shutout. In that 15-game span, Cleveland ranks 24th in MLB with a lowly 83 wRC+.
Let’s preview this matchup for Ohio bragging rights with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Reds vs. Guardians prediction, preview
Nick Lodolo is only the second-most impressive left-handed starter in the Reds’ rotation this season, yet that’s a tough bar to clear with how well the aforementioned Abbott has been pitching. The former seventh-overall pick comes in today’s tilt in possession of a 3.21 ERA and a 3.80 FIP across 75.2 innings of work, with four quality starts racked up in his last six outings. The lone red flag for Lodolo so far in 2025 has been the disappearance of his strikeout rate. After striking out 11.4 opponents per nine in his rookie campaign back in 2022, Lodolo has struck out just 20.6% of opponents this year, though there is some room for optimism, as the lefty has 46 strikeouts in his last 46.2 innings. Lodolo is also sporting a career-low walk rate (4.5%), so he’s compensating well for the sudden lack of whiffs.
Above, I mentioned that the Guardians have not hit well over the past couple of weeks. Well, they haven’t hit left-handed pitching at all for the entirety of 2025 — aside from Jose Ramirez, of course. As a team, Cleveland is slashing .218/.285/.310 off LHPs with a .092 ISO that ranks 28th in MLB and a 69 wRC+ that ranks 26th. For some context, the Guardians have fared better than league average versus right-handers, owning a 102 wRC+ within the split.
To be fair, the Reds have also not hit southpaws well in 2025, possessing a .215 average and a 74 wRC+. However, they won’t have to face a lefty as good as Lodolo on Wednesday. Logan Allen will take the mound for Cleveland in his matchup, a man who sports a 5.88 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP dating all the way back to April 27. You could make the case that these numbers should be even worse, too. Allen surrendered an eye-popping 2.03 home runs per nine in 2024, yet despite a similar barrel rate (10.0%), that figure is down to just 0.82 home runs in 2025. When the left-hander’s 6.9% HR/FB ratio regresses to the mean, Allen is going to be even more cringe-inducing than he already has been for Guardians’ fans.
Reds vs. Guardians pick, best bet
Best Bet: Reds ML (-115)
Cincinnati is riding a five-game winning streak and I do not trust Logan Allen at all.
Strong Lean: Under 8.5 (+102)
Neither of these teams has shown an ability to hit LHPs in 2025. The Reds have hit the under at a 58.5% clip this season — one of the 10 highest marks in MLB.
