Well, if you’re a Braves fan, at least you can take solace in the fact that you’ll likely be at work and unable to watch this 2:10 p.m. ET tilt versus the Brewers. You might need the break.
Atlanta was supposed to get better when it got Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider back from the IL. Instead, the Braves have lost 15 of their last 19 contests and currently sit 10 games below .500 — a whopping 14.5 games back of the first place Mets in the always difficult NL East. Woof.
Can Atlanta at least pull out a series win on Wednesday? Let’s preview this matinee matchup in Milwaukee with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves vs. Brewers prediction, preview
If there’s been one consistent bright spot for the Braves in 2025, it’s been Spencer Schwellenbach, who will toe the rubber this afternoon in Milwaukee. Over 13 starts and 80.2 innings, Schwellenbach has maintained a 3.24 ERA, a 3.25 SIERA and a 3.26 FIP. I guess you could say that the ERA estimators are all pretty much in-line with the real-life results. Schwellenbach isn’t going to blow you away with his stuff or his strikeout totals, yet a 95th percentile walk rate (4.3%) forces the opposing lineup to do all the work, while 80th percentile ground ball rate (49.6%) helps suppress opponent launch angle. The 25-year-old is simply as solid and reliable as it gets, and that’s evidenced by the fact that Schwellenbach sports a 2.87 ERA going back to July 27 of last season. That’s a 153.2 inning sample.
Chad Patrick doesn’t have quite as long a history of success at the MLB level, but his rookie campaign is going swimmingly. The 26-year-old has truly been the rock of this Brewers’ rotation outside of Freddy Peralta, pitching to an impressive 2.84 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 69.2 innings of work. Yes, Patrick’s 81.3% strand rate is a little high and a 5.4% HR/FB ratio is a little low, especially when you consider the RHP’s 0.57 GB/FB ratio, but all in all, Milwaukee couldn’t ask for more from the former fourth-round pick. Patrick appears to be yet another developmental achievement story for the Brewers’ organization. He’s also got a 2.25 ERA when taking the mound at American Family Field, so the Braves hitters could be in for another long afternoon.
That’s really been the biggest mystery of this underwhelming run for Atlanta: Why can’t this team hit? While both Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II are having awful seasons, the club’s sluggers are actually slugging, with Acuna (184), Marcell Ozuna (134) and Matt Olson (127) all well above average according to wRC+. Heck, rookie Drake Baldwin might have a case to start the All-Star Game for the National League at catcher. Entering play on Wednesday, the Braves sit fourth in the league in average exit velocity (90.1), fifth in hard hit rate (43.1%) and 10th in expected wOBA on batted ball events (.389). It feels like this is going to turn around at some point soon. It has to, right? …Right?
Braves vs. Brewers pick, best bet
Best Bet: First 5 – Under 3.5 Runs (+114)
Schwellenbach and Patrick have both been fantastic in 2025. At least early on, this has the makings of a pitchers’ duel.
Strong Lean: Brewers ML (+123)
Atlanta is 11-24 on the road this season. It has four total wins since May 19. Give me the home dogs.
