The division-leading Yankees enter tonight with their ace, Max Fried, on the mound. However, they’ll face a tough challenge against the rival Royals, who met New York last postseason. In this showdown between American League contenders, which side has the edge? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Tuesday night battle between the Yankees and Royals.
The Yankees enter tonight as heavy favorites (-206) over the Royals, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook going into Tuesday’s contest.
Yankees at Royals prediction, preview
It’s been a banner year for Fried, an early contender for the American League Cy Young award. Through 81.0 innings pitched, the left-hander has accounted for a 1.78 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 77 strikeouts. Unsurprisingly, the 31-year-old leads the majors with eight wins, thanks in part to New York’s loaded lineup. In his last time out, the two-time All-Star allowed one hit and no runs over six frames vs. Cleveland.
Much like the Guardians, Kansas City’s lineup isn’t anything to write home about. Granted, the Royals are led by Bobby Witt Jr., one of the sport’s greatest players. This season, he’s slashing .291/.349/.492 at the plate while driving in eight homers and 37 RBIs. However, KC’s depth gets thin rather quickly after the shortstop. Other than Maikel Garcia (140 wRC+) and Vinnie Pasquantino (111 wRC+), no other batters are having above-average campaigns. When Fried faced KC in April, he held the team to just two runs during 6.2 innings of work.
If the Royals have any shot in this one, they’ll need a stellar performance from starter Noah Cameron. Fortunately, the rookie has been up to the task thus far. Over five appearances this season, the 25-year-old has yet to allow more than one run. The end result? A pristine 0.85 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. Cameron will easily face his toughest test tonight against this Yankees offense. However, the southpaw has already navigated several above-average lineups, including the Rays, Cardinals, Reds and Twins.
As good as Cameron has been, his 3.64 FIP means that negative regression is likely inevitable. That’s especially true against the Yankees, who have the league’s highest OPS against left-handed pitchers (.836). Judge, in particular, could dominate tonight. The two-time MVP has posted an eye-popping .422 batting average against lefties this season. All-Star second baseman Jazz Chisolm’s return from injury has only made the Pinstripes even more dangerous. New York’s batters have notched the fourth-most strikeouts in baseball. However, Cameron’s mediocre 5.4 K/9 ratio should leave expectations tempered in that regard.
Yankees at Royals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Yankees team total over 4.5 runs (-135)
There’s no realistic way to feel confident about the Royals and their chances against Fried. On the flip side, Cameron is due for a hiccup at some point this season. Why not tonight against a lethal Yankees lineup?
