A lot of baseball means a lot of opportunities to bet.
With all 30 teams in action this evening, here are my top MLB picks on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
Tigers ML (+112)
I’m having a hard time wrapping my head around the Tigers as an underdog tonight. Do people think they’re playing the 2023 Orioles? Detroit comes into tonight in possession of the highest winning percentage in baseball. As such, the team can also lay claim to a .571 winning percentage when specifically playing away from home — the second-best mark in MLB. Yes, the Tigers are implementing a bullpen game on Tuesday with Sawyer Gipson-Long scheduled to be the bulk man, but everyone remembers how the franchise rode this exact strategy to a Wild Card spot last season, right? Or how about the fact Detroit’s relievers currently possess the fifth-best ERA in the league at 3.30?
To me, the more glaring pitching weakness is on the Orioles’ side of the probables. Cade Povich has looked slightly better the past few weeks, yet the 25-year-old still owns a 5.11 ERA and a 5.87 xERA across his 11 starts in 2025. Povich has also struggled with the new dimensions of Camden Yards, as he’s surrendering 2.63 opponent home runs per nine at home this season. That’s translated to a ghastly 7.24 ERA in Baltimore. I have my doubts that these issues will get magically fixed before first pitch tonight, and if they don’t, the Tigers sport a healthy 116 wRC+ against southpaws. Could get ugly.
Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins
Rangers ML (+104)
The cracks started to show for Tyler Mahle in his last outing against the Rays, as the right-hander conceded four earned runs across 5.1 innings of work. For some context, it was the most runs that Mahle had given up in a single start in 2025. Heck, it was only the fourth time he’d even allowed multiple runs in the same game. I think we all know that Mahle isn’t this good. However, you have to commend a veteran arm for maintaining a 2.02 ERA for 71.1 innings. It’s also not like his ERA estimators are that horrible. Mahle’s 3.22 FIP is one of the top 20 marks in baseball among qualified pitchers. Regression still looms, yet it’s not like Mahle’s going to fall off a cliff.
I can not say the same about Simeon Woods Richardson, who has been re-called from Triple-A to make tonight’s start for the Twins. Why was SWR in the minors? Well, in eight appearances and 37.2 innings to begin the season, Woods Richardson pitched to an ugly 5.02 ERA with a 5.83 xERA. His woes also included a second percentile opponent barrel rate (16.5%), which was the reason the RHP surrendered 1.91 home runs per nine. While the Rangers have been one of MLB’s worst lineups for the past six weeks, this seems like a matchup that even they could exploit. There’s no way I’ll be backing Woods Richardson as a favorite.
