The Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins are in familiar territory going into this game. Both teams are dead last in their respective divisions.
It’s nothing new for Miami after a rough 2024 season. After making the playoffs in 2023, Miami regressed hard, losing 100 games. At least the Chicago White Sox took the eyes off the other bad teams. Miami’s futility is an unfortunate by-product of having the lowest payroll in baseball. It’s hard to find good baseball players if you can’t pay them.
The Pirates aren’t exactly big spenders themselves. Armed with baseball’s fifth-lowest payroll, the Buccos got off to a 12-26 start this year, leading to the firing of manager Derek Shelton. The good news is that interim manager Don Kelly is 15-15 so far, and things don’t look as dire. With the best pitcher in baseball, Paul Skenes, the Pirates at least have a foundation to build a good team.
The Pirates enter at -157 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The run total is set at 8.5. Let’s take a look at the best bets for Wednesday’s game.
Marlins vs. Pirates Pick and Prediction
Miami Marlins Moneyline +128
On paper, the pitching matchup is somewhat imbalanced in Pittsburgh’s favor. Pirates starter Bailey Falter has pitched to a 3.49 ERA in the early going, while Marlins starter Cal Quantrill sits at 5.63. But that doesn’t tell the whole story for Quantrill.
Across his first six starts of the year, the former Stanford hurler recorded an 8.10 ERA. Across the last six, he’s at 3.25. The underlying numbers back up his turnaround; Quantrill’s FIP is at 3.14 during that stretch. He’s throwing extremely well and the Marlins are 3-3 in his last six starts as a result.
This Pirates offense has been in the bottom three in the majors this year, while the Marlins are closer to league average. If the starting pitcher matchup is close to even (or in Miami’s favor), I expect the Marlins to come out on top in this one.
