Coming into 2025, it was unclear how good both the Blue Jays and the Cardinals we’re going to be. While both franchises certainly expected great things, there were major question marks hovering over both organizations all spring long. Should they be trading All-Star level players? Should they be blowing things up?
Well, on June 9, both Toronto and St. Louis sit second in their division and right in the thick of the Wild Card race. Both are also coming off impressive series wins over the weekend, with the Jays taking two of three games in Minnesota and the Cardinals stealing a couple contests against the Dodgers.
Let’s break down Monday’s interleague matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blue Jays vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
I think we have to start with Toronto’s lineup. As much as the Jays’ offensive woes stagnated their record in April, the bats have been equally important to the team’s recent run of success. In fact, since the beginning of May, Toronto’s positional group is tied for the most fWAR in baseball with the Dodgers (8.6). It’s also a span of time where the Jays sit third in batting average (.264), fourth in wOBA (.337) and fourth in wRC+ (119). This isn’t a one-man show, either. In all honestly, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has actually been slightly underwhelming over the past month. Instead, it’s been George Springer and Bo Bichette leading the team in home runs, with the emergence of Addison Barger and Nathan Lukes being a massive boost, as well.
Toronto will look to continue its swinging up-swing on Monday evening in a matchup with Andre Pallante. The 26-year-old started the season well for the Cardinals, yet things have not been going super well as of late. Pallante surrendered a season-high seven earned runs in his most recent outing on June 3 and, going back to April 17, the right-hander owns a 5.80 ERA and a 5.17 FIP. It’s been opposing RHBs that have given Pallante the most trouble in this nine-start span, with those within the split combining to slash .337/.393/.592. If you add in Pallante’s sixth percentile strikeout rate (15.5%) and 13th percentile opponent expected batting average (.285), tonight should be a good time to be Guerrero, Bichette, Springer or Alejandro Kirk.
Whether it will be as good an evening for Jose Berrios is a slightly more difficult question. We’ve reached a point where it’s just understood that Berrios is going to outperform his expected statistics. To wit, in each of the past three seasons, the veteran RHP has managed a ERA slightly below 3.70 while possessing an xERA slightly above 4.50. In 2025, that means a 3.67 ERA and a 4.61 xERA across 76.0 innings of work. Berrios has been one of MLB’s most consistent arms for roughly a decade. You know what you’re getting from the 31-year-old. In his last eight outings, Berrios sports a 2.85 ERA and he’s conceded two earned runs or fewer in six of those starts. He’s solid. If the Jays can get to Pallante, Berrios should do enough to pick up a victory.
Blue Jays vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Blue Jays ML (-102)
The Cardinals are 22-11 at home in 2025, yet I can not back Pallante as a favorite with his recent struggles.
Strong Lean: Race to Three Strikeouts – Jose Berrios (-145)
Pallante owns a sixth percentile strikeout rate (15.5%). Toronto owns the lowest strikeout rate in MLB (18.1%).
