Major League Baseball fires up another great week of action with nine games on the slate. Storylines abound in the many matchups that begin new series this Monday night. There are several strong starting pitcher prop bets to consider from the 18 pitchers taking the hill. DraftKings Sportsbook offers a wide variety of markets for starting pitcher prop bets, and after looking at the options, my top plays of the night come from Mike Burrows, Yusei Kikuchi and Nick Pivetta.
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Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Mike Burrows under 3.5 strikeouts (+120)
Burrows and the Pirates host the Marlins to start the night in one of the early games, and he’ll be going against Eury Perez, who I like as a top MLB DFS value play. Burrows is on the other side of that matchup, and he’ll be making his fourth MLB start of the year.
He has been under this total in two of his three starts but did post an impressive six strikeouts in his last start against the Astros in 5 1/3 shutout innings to earn his first MLB win. In Triple-A this season, Burrows had 41 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings, so he doefinitely has strikeout potential, which is why this under is available at plus odds.
What I think many people many not realize in this matchup is how good the Marlins have been this season at strikeout suppression. Even though they don’t score a ton of runs sometimes, they have been one of the best teams in the majors at avoiding strikeouts. On the year, they rank in the middle of the pack, but over the last month, they have the third-lowest K% in the majors, averaging only 7.2 strikeouts per contest.
Burrows could also be limited if rain rolls through, so check the forecast before locking in any picks for this game. If rain postpones the game or the starting pitcher changes, any Burrows’ bets would be void, but if he starts and stops due to weather, it would only make it more likely that he goes under this strikeout prop.
Yusei Kikuchi under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-125)
Kikuchi has been fine for the Angels this season, but he hasn’t normally been getting through the six full innings to hit the over in this outs recorded prop. The Angels start their series against the Athletics with a favorable hitting matchup of their own, but Kikuchi has a tough matchup against the Athletics’ young lineup that has been hitting well lately.
In each of his last four starts, Kikuchi has come in under this outs recorded line. He went five innings against the Red Sox in his most recent outing, when he was fortunate to only allow three runs after giving up eight hits and five walks. He’s averaging 5 1/3 innings per start this season, and he has only gone over this line in one of his five home starts.
The Athletics’ overall record over the last month hasn’t been pretty, but the offense hasn’t been the main problem. Over the last two weeks, they are hitting .258 as a team with a top-10 wOBA during that stretch, 13 home runs and an average of 4.5 runs per game. They took two of three games from the Orioles over the weekend and have won four of their last five with at least four runs in each contest and an average of 7.0 runs per game over that span.
Kikuchi has had both good starts and bad spots over the last several weeks, but in almost all of them, he ended up under this number of outs recorded. With the Athletics hitting well and possibly getting Nick Kurtz back in the mix, I don’t think he’ll go deep in this game either.
Nick Pivetta over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-115)
In the last game of the night, Pivetta’s Padres take on the Dodgers in an NL West showdown. I’m surprised at how low Pivetta’s hits allowed line is and really like the over here for the third of my starting pitcher prop bets this Monday night.
Over the last week, no team in the majors has more hits than the Dodgers, who are hitting .277 as a team and have averaged 9.8 hits per contest. On the season, they’re hitting .269 against righties and .271 over the last month.
Pivetta hasn’t faced them since joining the Padres this past offseason, but he has allowed 51 hits in his 12 starts for an average of 4.25 hits per game. With even just a little bump to that average due to the quality of opponent, it’s easy to see this going over.
Lately, Pivetta has been giving up more hits as well. The Pirates and Giants each had six hits against him in his last two starts, and they are two of the worst offenses in the majors. Overall, he has given up at least five hits in five of his last seven outings, and facing the Dodgers even at Petco Park looks like another matchup where he’ll give up at least five base knocks.
