Nine Major League Baseball games fill up Monday night’s schedule with plenty of exciting action on tap and lots of fun matchups. It’s the start of new series for all 18 teams taking the field, and some of them are in great spots to attack for some home run props. Considering the many factors that go into home runs, including matchups, environment and players’ current form, my top three home run props on the board for Monday are Jose Ramirez, Taylor Ward and Ketel Marte.
Just a quick reminder–all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half their games, home run props are never “safe” picks, even if every single factor is in seems to point to it hitting. The upside to home run props is that the long odds mean big returns when they hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and get hyped when one of your hitters delivers.
Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be counted on since they are long shots. You can also combine these home run props with other picks into SGP or parlay plays, and I also like to play them at small money in round robin formats to boost their upside even higher if multiple picks go yard.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for today.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jose Ramirez to record 1+ home runs (+350)
Ramirez and the Guardians are in a great matchup against lefty Wade Miley and the Reds in this all-Ohio matchup. I highlighted the Guardians as a top option in my MLB stacks for the day, and Ramirez specifically could deliver a big game with a good shot at a home run.
The All-Star 3B has seven homers in his last 27 games and 12 long balls. Over that span, he has a 46.2% hard-hit rate, which is a big bump from his 40.2% hard-hit rate on the season. He has seven of his 12 homers at home this year, where he sports a healthy .389 wOBA.
The switch-hitting Ramirez has also smashed lefties all year with a .440 wOBA in the split. He has a good chance of going yard against Miley, and the Reds’ bullpen will also be a favorable matchup, especially if Miley leaves early. On the season, the Reds’ bullpen has the fifth-highest HR/9 in the MLB, although they have been much better over the last couple of weeks.
The forecast calls for wind blowing out at about 10 miles per hour, setting up a good environment for some blasts in the Buckeye State matchup. As a result of the matchup and environment, Ramirez claims a spot as one of my top home run props of the day.
Taylor Ward to record 1+ home runs (+390)
For the second two home run props I like this Monday, we’ll move to the late games, starting in Anaheim, where the Angels host the Athletics. The A’s send Jeffrey Springs to the mound against the Halos, and that should allow for some power production on the Angels’ side of the box score.
I highlighted Jo Adell’s recent power surge in my DFS bargain plays for the day, but in this spot, I’m zeroing in on Taylor Ward as one of my top home run props.
Springs has allowed 11 homers in his 12 starts this season, including five homers in his last four outings. All but one of those homers occurred against right-handed hitters, and four of those homers by righties have come on the road.
Ward has 18 homers on the season, and 10 of those have come in his last 25 games. He has a 45.6% hard-hit rate over that span, but the key to his power has been his 17.6% barrel rate. He has three homers in his last eight games after a two-run homer in Sunday’s loss to Seattle. The Angels did take two of three from the M’s, though, and will look to take another series win against the A’s. The Athletics as a team have given up an MLB-leading 24 home runs over the last month.
Ketel Marte to record 1+ home runs (+550)
For the last of my home run props, I’m rolling to the desert, where the Dbacks host the Mariners. Emerson Hancock will start for the Mariners, and the young righty has allowed nine homers in his 10 starts this year, with six of those coming in his last five starts. Six of his nine home runs allowed have been hit by lefties, who have a .361 wOBA against him on the year.
The switch-hitting Marte will bat lefty against Hancock, and he has hit 10 of his 12 homers on that side of the splits with a .497 wOBA against righties. He has hit .297 in his 18 home games and is coming home after hitting four homers on the team’s six-game trip to Atlanta and Cincinnati. He had a 50% hard-hit rate and 31.3% barrel rate on that trip, and he has an impressive 21.9% barrel rate over his last 20 games.
He’ll be in a good spot against Hancock at hitter-friendly Chase Field, and I am surprised at how long his odds are this Monday. His home run props are a great value play at +550.
