The Oklahoma City Thunder picked themselves up off the mat to even up this series with the Pacers 1-1 before things head back to Indiana. The Pacers held a lead for just 0.3 fateful seconds in the first game and were on top for less than two minutes in the Game 2 matchup.
The Thunder entered the NBA Finals as monstrous -650 favorites to win the series over the Indiana Pacers, with this number shifting as high as -700 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Oklahoma City held -275 odds on the -1.5 series spread when the odds opened, and the talking points seemed to be how easy this series would be for the Thunder.
There was some notable line movement after the improbable Game 1 Indiana victory, with the Thunder dropping to -300 favorites to win the NBA Finals. With the series now even at one win each, Oklahoma City has climbed back to -525 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook to capture the NBA title, while the Pacers hold +400 odds of winning three of the next five games to be crowned champions.
Historically, teams that win Game 1 of the NBA Finals go on to win the series 70.5% of the time. Across the playoffs overall, teams that win Game 1 of a series go on to win 77.9% of the time. The Golden State Warriors were the last NBA Champions to win the NBA Finals after dropping the opening game in the 2021-22 season.
However, the Thunder have already evened up the series and have been in control for the vast majority of minutes played. Regardless of the margin of victory or time with the lead, the series is 1-1, and this is the only metric that truly matters moving forward.
Looking ahead to Game 3, the odds are showing the most respect to the Pacers so far in these NBA Finals.
Oklahoma City will likely enter as 5.5-point favorites and -218 favorites on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pacers hold +180 odds of winning with the total set at 228.
Home-court advantage has been mostly out the window across these playoffs. However, it’s still worth noting the Pacers are 6-2 when playing at home this postseason and went 29-12 when playing at home across the regular season.
Teams that go on to win Game 3 of an NBA Finals when it is tied 1-1 have won the series 80.5% (33-8) of the time. Indiana will need to bounce back from their recent loss and have some better results if they want to get into the driver’s seat of the series.
Indiana has been a resilient group all year, and you cannot fully count them out until the clock officially hits zero. But there will be a point where they cannot continue pulling out improbable wins, and the Thunder clearly understood the wakeup call by keeping their foot on the gas until deep in the Game 2 matchup.
Game 3 will tell us a lot about the remaining series, so expect some notable odds movement in the series market either way.
