There is just one game of WNBA action as the Los Angeles Sparks (3-6) host the Golden State Valkyries (3-5) in a California-based battle. Neither team has gotten off to the start they desired, with the Valkyries in their debut season and the Sparks going through some notable roster turnover. This will also be the third matchup between these two teams already this season. The Sparks produced an 84-67 victory in the season opener, but the Valkyries got back in the win column with an 82-73 win in the second matchup.
The Sparks enter tonight’s game as 6.5-point favorites and -278 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Valkyries hold +225 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 162.5.
Sparks vs. Valkyries preview
The Sparks made a blockbuster trade to add Kelsey Plum in the offseason, and there have been some growing pains as the three-time All-Star settles in with her new team. There should not be significant panic yet, as the Sparks are a better team than their 3-6 record would indicate. They hold a net rating of just -0.4 despite the poor record, which ranks eighth in the WNBA. For reference, the Valkyries rank fourth-worst in this category with a -4.9 net rating on the season. The Connecticut Sun, who hold a 2-7 record, are producing a league-worst -22.6 net rating.
It is tough to have ambitious expectations for a team in its inaugural season, but the Valkyries have done a nice job establishing a respectable roster. They have a well-rounded scoring attack with five different players averaging in double-figures. Golden State has limited opponents to the fourth-fewest field-goal attempts and the fifth-best field-goal percentage against it in the WNBA. The Valkyries also lead the league in three-point attempts despite shooting just 28.8% from beyond the three-point arc collectively. Seven different players are averaging at least one made three-pointer per game.
This could be problematic against the Sparks, which is vulnerable on the defensive side. Plum brings plenty to the table offensively and is averaging the third-most points in the league at 21.6 per game. But she leaves plenty to be desired on the defensive side of the ball, and there have been some concerning metrics for Los Angeles. The Sparks have conceded the second-most three-point attempts, and opponents are shooting 34.1% from beyond the three-point arc against them this season. They are also allowing 83.4 points per game to opponents, which is the fourth-worst rate in the league.
It should be noted that Rickea Jackson missed the second matchup between these two teams, which resulted in a Sparks’ loss. She has only played four of the nine games so far this season, and her impact has been felt when she has been active. She dropped 10 points on 4-for-8 shooting in Friday’s victory against the Dallas Wings and helped the rest of the roster settle into their proper roles. With her concussion and personal issues behind her, hopefully, Jackson can help this Sparks team settle into its full potential.
Sparks vs. Valkyries prediction, pick
The three-point shooting results will have a major role in deciding the outcome of this game. The Valkyries depend on their three-point shooting for a significant percentage of their shot diet, and these looks should be easy to come by against this Sparks team. They shot 9-for-35 (25.7%) in the first matchup between these two teams and were 9-for-31 (31.0%) in the victory.
Tonight’s matchup will take place on the Sparks’ home court, with both teams having won on the road in their first two meetings. Jackson is a difference-maker for this Sparks team, and they are beginning to settle in with her on the floor. Her impact goes beyond the box score, and she finally has a chance to hit her full stride. Los Angeles has some momentum coming off a 14-point victory over the Dallas Wings, and it won by 17 points in the game it did defeat the Valkyries this year. All three of the Sparks’ victories have been by 13 points or greater.
They have had some struggles out of the gate, but the talent advantage is in favor of the Sparks, and the roster is set to begin clicking. With Jackson on the floor and chemistry beginning to build, expect tonight’s matchup to look more like the season-opener and for the Sparks to be in full control. Expect the victory over the Wings to be marked as a turning point of the season. Count on Plum’s offensive attack leading the charge and for the Valkyries to lack the offensive firepower to match. Expect Golden State to hang around a bit in this game before the Sparks can blow things open in the second half. It will take a vastly improved three-point performance for an upset, and the Valkyries have not given a reliable enough sample size to believe this will be the case.
