This is the second game of a three-game series in Philadelphia.
Colin Rea is scheduled to pitch for Chicago while Mick Abel should get the nod for Philadelphia.
Cubs at Phillies prediction, preview
Colin Rea has been average through 57.2 innings. While the ERA is 3.59, there’s tons of red flags. The FIP is higher at 4.32, while the strikeout rate is 17.8%. The swinging strike rate is 8.1%, while the chase rate is only 23.9%. The average exit velocity is 91.2 mph while the hard hit rate is 42.5%.
Left-handed batters have crushed Rea, as they are slashing .314/.366/.508 with five of the eight home runs allowed. Six of the eight home runs have been served up at home.
Rea has allowed more than three earned runs three times this season – four against the Giants and six each in two games against the Reds, home and away. Rea faced the Phillies back in late April. He went five innings, struck out seven, walked two and did not allow an earned run.
Against right-handed pitching, the Phillies have struck out at the 25th-highest rate while having the 21st-best ISO. The wOBA is 14th-best in MLB.
Mick Abel has thrown only 11.1 innings this season, his first in MLB. And my goodness, he’s been amazing. He’s struck out 11 batters and given up one earned run without allowing a walk or a home run. That said, the average exit velocity is a whopping 95.1 mph while the hard hit rate is 63.3%.
The Cubs have struck out at the 23rd-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being fourth in ISO. The wOBA is fourth-best.
As for bullpens, Chicago has the 11th-lowest FIP while Philadelphia has the 19th-lowest.
Cubs at Phillies pick, best bet
Outside of the game at Coors Field, this one has the highest total at 9.5. Both pitchers are susceptible to getting crushed, and I think both do. Abel has been very, very fortunate. This start may be a “Welcome to the MLB” moment, and not in a good way.
