The Pittsburgh Steelers have seen no shortage of players with big personalities in recent seasons. Now, the latest one comes in with multiple MVPs and a championship ring to his name.
On Saturday, the team agreed to terms with quarterback Aaron Rodgers on a one-year deal worth up to $19.5 million.
The move comes after multiple months of flirtation between the two sides. The Steelers notably let signal-callers Russell Wilson and Justin Fields walk over the offseason, and the team’s interest in Rodgers has been no secret by any means.
They now have a quarterback, but do they have the pieces to win their first Super Bowl since 2009?
Can the Steelers win a Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers?
The Steelers have a funny way of always finding themselves in the playoff mix but never making much noise. They still haven’t finished below the .500 mark in the Mike Tomlin era, but they haven’t made it past the Wild Card round since 2017. With four playoff appearances in the last five years, the team keeps knocking at the door only to have it cracked open and subsequently slammed back in their faces.
It’s not like the Steelers have been devoid of talent, either. The team typically hangs its hat on defense with a deep group of playmakers across the board which keeps them in games. However, even the offense has seen its share of reliable production. Najee Harris, George Pickens, Diontae Johnson, and a handful of other names have all come and gone, but the one consistent theme is an offense which hasn’t finished ranked higher than 12th in points or 23rd in yards over the last six years.
The issue nearly always circles back to the player under center. Pittsburgh’s leading passers over the last six seasons are as follows: Russell Wilson, Kenny Pickett twice, Ben Roethlisberger twice, and Kyle Rudolph. Yes, they’re almost always in the mix, but it’s incredibly difficult to expect a team with past-their-prime veterans or unproven young guys to compete for a Super Bowl.
So sure, we can probably say with a great degree of certainty that Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback the team has employed in many, many moons. He possesses a pedigree unlike any of the Steelers’ other recent names, but it’s not like the bar is set very high to begin with.
A case study
Rodgers comes to Pittsburgh following a 5-12 campaign with the New York Jets which can be called tumultuous at best. He appeared in 17 games and threw 584 passes, the third-highest mark of his career. Whether it be due to high volume, poor weapons, or a genuine decline in efficiency, Rodgers completed just 63.0% of his throws, the fourth-lowest completion percentage of his 15-plus years as a starter.
Granted, the veteran’s 3,897 yards and 28 passing touchdowns do numb some of the concerns with his completion percentage, at least at first glance. However, Rodgers threw 11 interceptions as well, marking the third-most of his career and just his fourth season ever with double-digit picks. He also threw 12 in his final season with the Green Bay Packers, so is it possible his days of elite ball security have faded?
Some of the deeper metrics also don’t point to encouraging signs. Rodgers’ 6.7 Y/A match a career-worst as a starter set in 2015, while his 6.78 adjusted Y/A and 10.6 Y/C are also career-lows. He also ranked 18th in PFF passing grade, which feels like a negative but could be considered impressive depending on how you grade the context of his pass catchers and scheme in New York.
Can Rodgers help the Steelers make a run?
Overall, the vast majority of signs point to Rodgers being past his prime, and it doesn’t exactly take an analytics genius to realize that. His arm strength isn’t what it used to be and he hasn’t protected the ball well over his last two full seasons.
However, Rodgers is the best football mind to quarterback the team in a very long time, if not in the franchise’s entire history. In that regard, he’s a step up from anyone under center during recent years, so his ability to lead an offense does count for something. Is that enough to lead the team to glory, though?
Steelers fans will hate to hear this, but the answer is probably a no.
The team traded away George Pickens over the offseason before bringing in DK Metcalf on a very expensive contract, but outside of the big-bodied wideout, they don’t have many significant difference-makers. Nobody between Pat Freiermuth, Calvin Austin, and Robert Woods are better than average at best, and second-year wideout Roman Wilson is also unproven as he enters the season coming off injury. Rookie Kaleb Johnson may be a fine bruiser back and Jaylen Warren is underrated when healthy, but they aren’t exactly moving the needle, either.
With the lack of top-end offensive talent and an aging Rodgers helming the attack, the Steelers will have a difficult path to contention in a highly-competitive AFC. They haven’t even won their own division since 2020 — far from an encouraging sign in its own right.
Pittsburgh took a risk waiting this long for a quarterback. Their courtship with Rodgers may yet prove fruitful, but anything greater than another Wild Card exit feels like a long shot with +130 odds to make the playoffs, +2000 odds to win the AFC, and +4000 odds of securing a Super Bowl.
