The dust has settled from the thrilling Game 1 of the NBA Finals in which the Indiana Pacers pushed past the Oklahoma City Thunder with a last-second shot by Tyrese Haliburton. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company are back to the drawing board and will be looking the bounce back in Game 2 with the home crowd behind them.
Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 38 points, five rebounds, three assists, and three steals in Game 1, but it took an inefficient 14-for-30 shooting performance to get there. No other member of the team took more than 19 shots.
Looking at the Game 1 odds, the Thunder enter as 11-point favorites with -520 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pacers hold +390 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at 228.5 points.
With the stage set, here are my favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prop bets for the fateful Game 2 matchup.
Best Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s props are listed at over/under 34.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 1.5 steals, and 47.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 34.5 Points (-105)
While depth is a strength of both of these NBA Finals teams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the clear head of the snake for the Thunder and the best player on the floor. The MVP led the league in scoring across the regular season with 32.7 points per game and is averaging 30.2 points per game in the postseason. He reached this total in Game 1 with 38 points and has free rein to attack as he sees fit.
Indiana makes a clear defensive effort to limit three-point attempts and stays glued to shooters on the perimeter. Gilgeous-Alexander is extremely effective at attacking and collapsing opposing defenses, with this being a foundation of the Thunder offense. The Pacers are well aware of this and actively did not play into the game plan, which resulted in plenty of shot volume for the star. The 30 shot attempts tied his playoff career high, and is slightly higher than we should expect, but the shot attempts are there for the taking and Gilgeous-Alexander is unfraid.
This has been the blueprint throughout this playoff run for the Pacers. They are willing to let the opposing star have theirs as long as it does not open up the game for the rest of the team. Donovan Mitchell averaged 34.2 points on 25 shot attempts per game in the Cavaliers series against Indiana. Jalen Brunson also averaged 30.7 points per game in the series against the Pacers while attempting 20.8 field goal attempts per game.
Expect a similar defensive attack from Indiana tonight. They will be more willing to live with Gilgeous-Alexander’s mid-range shooting rather than the open three-point looks he can create. He tallied over 34.5 points in 26 games in the regular season and has reached this total in four of his past seven postseason games. Count on the Thunder star to set the tone for the team early and not take his foot off the gas. Look for him to go over 34.5 points for the second straight game and continue finding spots to operate in the midrange throughout.
Shai Gilgeous Alexander Under 7.5 Assists (-145)
On the other side of this same outlook, expect assists to be difficult to come by for Gilgeous-Alexander. Across the regular season, he averaged 6.4 assists per game, with this number growing to 6.7 in the postseason. He has been held to under 7.5 assists in 46 of the 76 regular-season games and 10 of the 17 postseason games.
Jalen Williams attempted 19 field goal attempts in Game 1, and every other player was limited to 10 or fewer shots. Lu Dort was the only member of the team to join Gilgeous-Alexander with more than four three-point attempts. Gilgeous-Alexander is a fine passer, but 7.5 is a high bar for an assist total, and the three he produced in Game 1 were telling.
Expect a more conscious effort to be made by the Thunder to play more team basketball. But the solution to this likely has more to do with using the superstar as a decoy rather than having him generate looks as a playmaker. Andrew Nembhard primarily guarded the Thunder star and looked far more comfortable than most defenders do. Nembhard showed some familiarity with his Canadian National team teammate, and Indiana is more comfortable leaving him in one-on-one coverage to prevent passing opportunities.
Expect Gilgeous-Alexander to be active in producing throughout this game, but to fall short of 7.5 assists for the second straight game.
