Hunter Dobbins is talking some serious (and seriously fun) trash before his start tonight. Roman Anthony KO’d a five-hundred-foot grand slam last night in Worcester. The Sox won in the Bronx on the back of a vintage Trevor Story offensive effort. But, in so doing, they let up their fair share of runs. The Yankees countered Boston’s eight runs with five of their own. Bats should be live again tonight. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Sunday night baseball game between the Yankees and the Red Sox.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
The Red Sox have been consistent at scoring, ranking sixth in the league with 4.83 runs per game and a .254 team batting average. Yet, they’re struggling to keep their opponents in check. Despite flashes of brilliance offensively—thanks in large part to Rafael Devers (13 HR, 56 RBI) and Jarren Duran (batting .274)—their pitching has been a problem. Hunter Dobbins, a rookie, faces his biggest challenge yet. His 4.06 ERA and 1.33 WHIP suggest he can be hit, and the Yankees are as potent as it gets. Dobbins has allowed a .271 average against him this season, and New York’s lineup is primed to exploit that. Their offense is explosive, leading the league with 102 home runs. The Yankees’ .342 on-base percentage ranks first, and their 5.43 runs per game put them third in the league. Aaron Judge is continuing to hit like an MVP, with a .390 average, 21 home runs, and 51 RBI. That’s just the beginning—Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger are raking, too.
On the mound for the Yankees, Carlos Rodón is bringing his 2.49 ERA and 8-3 record to the bump. But while Rodón is undoubtedly one of the best in the AL, there’s a wrinkle here: he’s a flyball pitcher, and Yankee Stadium is a notorious hitter’s park. Rodón has allowed seven home runs in his last five starts against teams with a slugging percentage of .420 or higher, and Boston’s offense is more than capable of keeping pace. With the ball likely to fly out more than usual, the over looks appealing. Rodón is susceptible against teams with decent power, and Boston is certainly no stranger to the long ball.
Red Sox vs. Yankees pick, best bet
Both teams have a history of hitting the over in their matchups, and their current forms only reinforce that trend. The Yankees have been the league’s third-highest scoring team, averaging 5.43 runs per game. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are more than capable of contributing to the total with their own offensive depth. Boston has scored four-plus runs in eight of their last 10 games as underdogs. Even with their pitching issues, they’ve got a pedigree of ability to scratch together some runs against Rodón.
To add fuel to the fire, the Yankees’ bullpen has been solid but not untouchable, ranking sixth in WHIP but allowing 4.3 runs per game over the past 10 games. Boston’s bullpen ranks 29th in ERA with a 4.10 team ERA, and they’ve allowed 5.5 runs per game in their last 10 games. If we see a game where the offenses stay hot and the bullpens are tested, it’s easy to see this one hitting the over.
In terms of recent trends, the over has hit in five of the Red Sox’s last 10 games, and five of the Yankees’ last 10 games have gone over the total as well. With two potent offenses, a flyball pitcher on the mound, and shaky bullpens in play, I’m confident that we’ll see runs come early and often in this one.
Over breaks .500 today.
Best bet: Yankees vs. Red Sox o7.5 total runs (-120)
Just far too low with all those lefties and that short porch—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
