Major League Baseball has a full Sunday of great matchups lined up to round out the weekend. While most of the action starts in the early afternoon, there are five games getting underway at 3:10 p.m. ET or later. Let’s look at the 10 teams in those contests and hunt down some top home run props. Considering the many factors involved, including matchups, environment and players’ current form, my top three home run props on the board for Sunday afternoon and evening are Francisco Lindor, Ramon Laureano and Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Just a quick reminder as we get started–all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half their games, home run props are never “safe” picks, even if every single factor is in seems to point to it hitting. The upside to home run props is that the long odds mean big returns when they hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and get hyped when one of your hitters delivers.
Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be counted on since they are long shots. You can also combine these home run props with other picks into SGP or parlay plays, and I also like to play them at small money in round robin formats to boost their upside even higher if multiple picks go yard.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for today.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Francisco Lindor to record 1+ home runs (+320)
Lindor was able to get back into the lineup on Saturday after just two days out of the lineup with a broken right pinkie toe. He went 3-for-5 with a pair of stolen bases in his return after coming up with a key pinch-hit double to help the Mets take the first game of this series on Friday.
Lindor is up to 14 homers on the season after hitting four long balls in his last eight games. He has hit nine of those 14 homers against right-handed pitching, and the switch-hitter is hitting .289 with a .368 wOBA in the split.
He’ll face righty Chase Dollander on Sunday after the Rockies shuffled their rotation on Saturday. Dollander has allowed 10 homers in his nine MLB starts with a 6.26 ERA and 5.97 FIP. Slightly more have come against left-handed hitters, who have six homers and a .363 wOBA against him on the season.
Over his last eight games, dating back to just before the injury, Lindor has a 61.5% hard-hit rate and 19.2% barrel rate. His average exit velocity has been 93.3 miles per hour over that span, and in a matchup against Dollander, Lindor has a good shot to go yard at these odds at Coors on Sunday.
Ramon Laureano to record 1+ home runs (+390)
The Orioles are taking on the Athletics at homer-friendly Sutter Health Park in one of the afternoon matchups and take on lefty Jacob Lopez, who has allowed six homers in just 20 innings this year. Five of those six homers allowed were to right-handed hitters, though, and most of the Orioles top power options are lefties.
Laureano is one of the few right-handers in the O’s lineup, and the former Athletic has been heating up lately and hitting the ball very well over the last few weeks for Baltimore.
Laureano has seven homers in his 38 games with Baltimore this season, and four of those have come in the last month, while he hit .375 with a .477 wOBA. His hard-hit rate hasn’t been extremely high but he has been catching barrels, with a 13.8% barrel rate in his last 11 contests.
He has hit four of his seven homers on the road this season and homered on Saturday in just his second game back after missing over two weeks due to an ankle sprain. His matchup against Lopez sets up will for him to deliver as a longshot play at these odds in my home run props for Sunday.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. to record 1+ home runs (+450)
The last game of the day is in the Bronx where the Yankees host the Red Sox, and I’m rolling with Jazz Chisholm Jr. as the third of my three home run props for the day.
Chisholm didn’t start on Saturday after going 3-for-5 with a home run on Friday. It was his second homer in his five games since returning from injury and gave him nine homers in just 35 games this season.
Eight of his nine homers have come at Yankee Stadium and eight of his nine homers have come against righties, so being at home against righty Hunter Dobbins should be a spot that plays to his strentghs.
Despite his low batting average (.220), Chisholm has a .244 ISO and .344 wOBA, and he has a 15.2% barrel rate, which would be the best mark of his career if he continues to square so many hits up. Chisholm is boom-or-bust, but at these odds, he can finish your Sunday and the weekend with a bang if he gets a hold of one at Yankee Stadium on Sunday Night Baseball.
