This is the opener of a three-game series in Philadelphia.
Matthew Boyd is scheduled to pitch for Chicago while Zack Wheeler should get the nod for Philadelphia.
Cubs at Phillies prediction, preview
Matthew Boyd used to have a home run problem, but he got that under control after seven years in MLB. Unfortunately, he’s been unable to stay healthy since then, failing to hit 80 innings pitched since 2020. He is now on his fourth team and, so far, the results have been promising with the Cubs. Through 68.2 innings, he’s posted a 3.01 ERA while the FIP is 3.46. The strikeout rate is 24.7% while the K-BB% is 19.1%. He’s only walked 16 batters while allowing eight home runs.
Boyd has been tough against lefties while righties have had some success. All eight home runs allowed have been to righties. There’s been no discernible difference between pitching at home or on the road.
Through 12 starts, Boyd has allowed more than three earned runs only once. He’s gone at least six innings in eight starts. This will be the first time facing Philadelphia this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Phillies have struck out at the 19th-highest rate while having the eighth-best ISO. The wOBA is ninth-best in MLB.
Zack Wheeler is one of the best pitchers in MLB. The 2.96 ERA is supported by the 2.92 FIP. The strikeout rate is a robust 32.1% while the walk rate is 6.1%. The swinging strike rate is 13.6% while the chase rate is 29.1%. The average exit velocity is only 87.2 mph while the hard hit rate is 32.4%. In addition, Wheeler has only allowed a 6.7% barrel rate.
Wheeler has been tough against both righties and lefties while being effective both at home and on the road.
Wheeler has had three starts allowing over three earned runs – five in Atlanta during his third start, four in St. Louis in his fourth start and six against Atlanta at home in the most recent start. The rest of the starts were at two earned runs or less, with three shutouts. This will be the first time facing Chicago this season.
The Cubs have struck out at the 24th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being fourth in ISO. The wOBA is fourth-best.
As for bullpens, Chicago has the 12th-lowest FIP while Philadelphia has the 19th-lowest.
Cubs at Phillies Pick, Best Bet
Both Boyd and Wheeler are very good pitchers, and I’m expecting a pitcher’s duel. The markets also agree as the O/U of 7.5 runs is tied for the lowest on the slate. The Phillies offense is definitely neutered with no Bryce Harper, so I lean towards the Chicago side to eek out the win.
