The Indiana Pacers pulled off a stunning upset victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Despite trailing for over 47 minutes, a Tyrese Haliburton jump shot rattled through with 0.3 seconds on the clock to add to the Pacers’ list of improbable comeback wins.
This has led to some significant odds movement in the series. While Oklahoma City still holds -300 odds of winning the series on DraftKings Sportsbook, they had climbed to as high as -700 favorites before the series tipped off. Historically, teams that win Game 1 of the NBA Finals go on to win the series 70.5% of the time.
Looking at the Game 2 odds, Oklahoma City is favored by 11 points and -600 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pacers hold +440 odds of getting the outright win, and the game total is set at 228.5.
The Case for the Pacers:
The Pacers have broken all basketball logic on several occasions throughout this playoff run. But they deserve a ton of credit for rolling with opponents’ best punches and keeping games within arm’s reach to give themselves a chance. This blueprint has proven effective for them, and Indiana is producing a ridiculous +40.4 net rating in clutch time possessions during these playoffs.
While they will walk away from Game 1 satisfied with the win, the Pacers have plenty they can still improve on. They turned the ball over 25 times, did not have much success pushing the ball in transition themselves, and no player on the roster scored more than 19 points. The game-winning shot will be what people remember, but Tyrese Haliburton struggled for most of the game. The Pacers star finished with 14 points and six assists on 6-for-13 shooting.
There have been plenty of doubts surrounding this Pacers team across the postseason run, and they continue to carry a chip on their shoulder. The Thunder are sure to enter with a clear focus and keep their foot on the gas throughout. But if the Pacers can keep the game within striking distance and push it to clutch time, the youth of the Thunder and the success of the Pacers, you cannot count them out.
It feels like a great deal of the attention has been paid to the Thunder blowing Game 1. But the reality is the Pacers did not play their best basketball either.
The Case for the Thunder:
If you take away the final few minutes, the Thunder should feel pretty great about how Game 1 went. Their defense made a clear impact in forcing turnovers, the lead was pushed to as high as 15, and they had plenty of chances to put the game away. Unfortunately, games are 48 minutes for a reason, and the Thunder were punished for not being able to deliver the knockout punch.
There is also a case that the Thunder made too many adjustments in anticipation of the matchup with Indiana. They have had great success leaning on their double big man lineups with both Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren on the floor this season and in the playoffs. Rather than start the game out this way and see if they need to adjust, they injected Cason Wallace into the starting lineup. Sure, every matchup advantage you can get is beneficial, and if it had worked, Mark Daigneault would have looked like a genius. But it is also fair to asses the Thunder were the team that won 68 games in the regular season with a historic defense, entered the series as a heavy favorite, and they should be forcing their opponent to adjust to them- not the other way around. Considering Indiana outrebounded Oklahoma City 56-39, don’t be surprised if they go back to what has worked ahead of Game 2.
In addition to the starting lineup change, they experimented with Ajay Mitchell’s minutes and had some strange lineup decisions throughout. Chet Holmgren was also limited to 24 minutes, although he admittedly struggled. It all just felt a bit too cute and like the Thunder were overthinking things. The youth of this roster has not shown up often, but they need to get back to playing their brand of basketball.
While the Thunder forced 25 turnovers in Game 1, they were only able to generate 11 points from these. The Pacers deserve credit for limiting this, but the Thunder have to do better. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander poured in 38 points in Game 1, but it took him 30 shots to get there. There was a bit too much hero ball from the MVP, and his 14-for-30 shooting performance could be cleaned up.
If the Thunder play their best basketball from start to finish, the Pacers cannot beat them. But this is easier said than done against this Indiana team.
The Pick: Thunder -11 (-108)
11 points is a large spread for an NBA Finals game, especially for a team that lost the first game. But expect the Thunder to take their frustrations out from that disappointing Game 1 result by pouring it on and leaving no doubts in this game.
Since 2021, higher seeds have gone 21-7 in Game 2 with a +12.1 point differential after losing Game 1 in the NBA playoffs. Across this year’s playoffs, teams that have lost Game 1 have outscored opponents by an average of 12.0 points. This includes the Thunder beating the Nuggets by 43 points in Game 2 of the Conference Semifinals.
Neither team played its best basketball in Game 1, and this left just enough of a window for the Pacers to burst through. Expect Oklahoma City to be incredibly cognizant of this ahead of Game 2, and for no lead to be safe. The Pacers are playing with house money by getting the Game 1 victory, and it is human nature for there to be some sort of emotional letdown. Falling in a 0-2 hole before the series heads back to Indiana would be disastrous for this Thunder team. Expect a clear effort from the opening whistle and for Game 2 to look more like the blowouts that many were expecting in this series.
