The Rangers limp into Nationals Park after dropping four straight, including a frustrating series sweep against Tampa Bay. Texas’ offense has been stagnant, ranking near the bottom of the league in both batting average and runs scored. Meanwhile, the Nationals have shown life recently, winning three of their last five and claiming a shutout victory over the Cubs. With both teams hovering just under .500, this series holds major implications for their playoff hopes. Corbin faces his former team, while Soroka looks to build on a solid start against a floundering Rangers lineup. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday night baseball game between the Rangers and the Nationals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Nationals vs. Rangers prediction, preview
The Rangers come into this one having struggled on the road, dropping eight of their last nine away games. Despite their pitching, which ranks top in ERA (3.17), their offense has faltered badly. They’ve averaged just 3.5 runs per game in their last five, showcasing their inconsistency at the plate. On the mound, Patrick Corbin (3-4, 3.71 ERA) brings steady if unspectacular numbers, with his most recent outings showing flashes of sharpness. Corbin’s ability to avoid big innings, keeping hitters under .230 in his last few starts, is his strength. However, his 4.44 ERA on the road this season shows his vulnerability away from home. But it hasn’t been enough, with the Rangers unable to get consistent run support.
Meanwhile, the Nationals are coming off a 2-0 win against the Cubs and sit third in the NL East. Michael Soroka (2-3, 5.81 ERA) hasn’t been perfect, but his 28:6 K:BB ratio is indicative of his stuffy repetoire. He’s allowed a 1.23 WHIP, suggesting he’s limiting base runners, despite the inflated ERA. His ERA is inflated due to a few big innings, but his control has been solid. Soroka’s .238 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) suggests he’s been unlucky, and positive regression could be on the horizon. With their bats, the Nationals have been somewhat reliable. James Wood leads with 16 homers and 45 RBIs, and C.J. Abrams is hitting .272 with 12 doubles and eight homers. Despite their offensive potential, their pitching staff ranks 26th in ERA (5.02), making them vulnerable against a better-pitched team.
Corbin’s been solid but doesn’t offer the dominance needed for a heavy favorite. Soroka, while inconsistent, has shown flashes of brilliance and has a better recent track record than Corbin. His 28 strikeouts in 31 innings show a solid 8.13 K/9 rate, and his control has been on point. Texas, especially without key injuries like Chris Martin and Nathan Eovaldi, has struggled in close games, losing 5-11 in one-run contests. Their offensive woes are evident, with the Rangers ranking 29th in wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) at 81. They’ve gone under in 12 of their last 17 games and are prone to slow starts, struggling to come from behind in tight games.
Rangers vs. Nationals pick, best bet
The Nationals have gone 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games, showing resilience against weaker opponents. In interleague play, the Nats are 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games. Texas, on the other hand, has shown inconsistency, struggling against teams like the Rays and falling flat on the road. With their inability to generate runs and the Nationals finding form at home, Washington’s pitchers have kept the score within range in 12 of their last 14 home games. I’m locking in Washington to cover the spread. The Rangers’ offense simply hasn’t been good enough, and with Soroka capable of grinding through a rough Rangers lineup, Washington’s at-home advantage makes them a smart play.
This game is set to be tight, but with the Rangers’ road woes and inconsistent offense, Washington should cover. Expect Soroka to do enough on the mound to keep this one within reach, even if the total could go either way. Best edge here lies with the Nats to hang tight.
Best bet: Nationals +1.5 (-155) vs. Rangers
Positive regression for Soroka (.238 BABIP)—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
