The Miami Marlins are struggling to find consistency, sitting at the bottom of the NL East with a 23-37 record. Kyle Stowers is slumping, and he was their greatest wRC+ hope. The Fish have dropped four straight, and haven’t shown any vectors of a turnaround. On Friday, they’ll face a Tampa Bay Rays team that believes it can set the entire league on fire, coming off a series sweep of the Texas Rangers. The Rays clearly have the edge here, and have been especially dominant at home, winning 10 of their last 11 games at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday baseball game between the Rays and the Rangers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Rays vs. Marlins prediction, preview
Edward Cabrera will take the mound for the Marlins, and while he’s had moments of brilliance, including a scoreless outing against San Francisco, his inconsistency remains a red flag. Cabrera’s career numbers against the Rays are less than stellar—0-2 with a 7.20 ERA. I don’t trust him to handle Tampa Bay’s offense, especially with his 1.42 WHIP and struggles against top-line teams. Meanwhile, Zack Littell for the Rays has been a steady presence. He’s 5-5 with a 3.86 ERA and has pitched effectively in his last few starts. Littell’s ability to go deep into games, averaging 6.2 innings per start, is invaluable here. Littell’s control has been sharp, as evidenced by his 3.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio and ability to limit hard contact.
At the plate, the Marlins have struggled mightily. They rank 24th in runs scored and 27th in home runs. Kyle Stowers is doing his best with 10 home runs, but his efforts are isolated. The overall offensive output is lacking, and they’re averaging just 4.0 runs per game. Against a pitching staff like the Rays, who allow just 3.63 runs per nine innings (seventh in MLB), it’s hard to see how Miami can generate enough offense. In contrast, Tampa Bay has more depth offensively. Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz have been catalysts, combining for 55 RBIs, and Jonathan Aranda leads the team in batting average at .321. The Rays may not lead the league in runs, but their offense is more than capable of taking advantage of Cabrera’s mistakes.
Defensively, the Rays’ pitching staff has been stellar, with a 3.43 ERA that ranks sixth in the league. Littell has been a key contributor, limiting hard contact and keeping his walks low. With Littell allowing just 1.93 HR/9, he’s the kind of pitcher who neutralizes Miami’s weak power-hitting lineup. On the other hand, Miami’s pitching staff has been a liability with a 5.04 team ERA. Their bullpen is ranked 27th in ERA and it’s been a consistent issue for them, especially on the road. When combined with their inability to generate consistent offense, the Marlins are at a significant disadvantage.
Marlins vs. Rays pick, best bet
In terms of recent form, the Rays are 7-3 in their last 10, and they’ve consistently covered the spread, especially when favored at home. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 3-7 in their last 10 and have been inconsistent on both sides of the ball. The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games, and I just don’t see them making any noise here. The Marlins have also lost their last six games against AL East opponents after a win, which adds to the case against them in this matchup.
Given the strong starting pitching from Littell, Tampa Bay’s recent form, and Miami’s struggles both offensively and on the mound, I’m locking in the Rays to cover the -1.5 spread. The Marlins simply haven’t shown enough to convince me they can stay competitive against a team with the Rays’ depth and momentum.
Best bet: Rays -1.5 (+120) vs. Marlins
Third time we’re hitting the Rays ML this week!—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
