It’s a prime NL showdown at Busch Stadium, where the high-powered Dodgers take on the up-and-coming Cardinals. With both teams averaging close to five runs per game and potent lineups ready to exploit pitching weaknesses, this game is set to deliver a lot of knocks. You can expect plenty of offense as both clubs battle for crucial early-season momentum. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday night baseball game between the Cardinals and the Dodgers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cardinals vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
Other than one horrific start, Sonny Gray has been the embodiment of reliability this season, with a 6-1 record and a 3.65 ERA that’s been vital to the Cardinals’ success. His recent form has been nothing short of elite—posting a 1.42 ERA over his last three starts, including two shutouts. His strikeout rate of 9.9 K/9 keeps batters in check, and while he’s had mixed results historically against the Dodgers (1-4, 3.35 ERA), his current trajectory suggests he’ll have the upper hand against a struggling Wrobleski.
On the flip side, Justin Wrobleski, making just his second career start for the Dodgers, has been a ticking time bomb. With an ERA of 8.00, his numbers don’t inspire confidence. His 5.09 ERA at Triple-A didn’t exactly scream “ready for the big leagues,” and his 1.43 WHIP against right-handed batters makes him ripe for exploitation. The Dodgers’ depth is impressive, but Wrobleski’s performance could be the weak link, especially at Busch Stadium, where he has a bloated 8.10 ERA.
Enter the Cardinals’ offense. Willson Contreras has been on fire, slugging .508 with a .373 xwOBA, and he’s shown a particular knack for punishing left-handed pitchers (135 wRC+). He’s been steady at the plate with a .286 batting average and 32 RBIs, and I see him capitalizing on Wrobleski’s mistakes. On top of that, Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan are putting together impressive at-bats—especially against pitchers like Wrobleski who struggle with command.
In contrast, while the Dodgers’ offense is undoubtedly powerful, Gray’s consistency on the mound and the Cardinals’ superior pitching depth should hold their offense in check. Yes, the Dodgers lead the league in home runs, but the absence of key arms in their bullpen and the uncertainty surrounding Wrobleski’s effectiveness are major concerns.
Dodgers vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
The Cardinals are 20-10 at home this season and have been a formidable force as home favorites. They’re also 59% against the spread when coming off a loss, a trend that bodes well for them in this game. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have been shaky on the road, and their struggles against National League teams following a home win have been well-documented.
I like the Cardinals on the runline, honestly. With Sonny Gray’s dominance on the mound and the Dodgers’ vulnerability in the starter’s spot, this game feels like St. Louis’ to lose. The Dodgers’ road woes and Wrobleski’s lack of experience will be their downfall here. Gray’s expected quality start will give the offense plenty of opportunities to exploit Wrobleski, and the Cardinals should cover comfortably.
Having said that, we’re going to bet the over 8.5 tonight. The Dodgers’ bullpen is underperforming, with a 4.44 ERA since May 15, and their pitching depth has been stretched thin due to injuries. Combine that with Wrobleski’s erratic form and Gray’s inconsistent history against the Dodgers, and there’s plenty of opportunity for runs to cross the plate. Both teams have trended toward the over recently—seven of the Cardinals’ last eight games have gone over, and eight of the Dodgers’ last 10 have as well. This game is set up for fireworks, and with a total of 8.5, I’m confident the over will hit.
Best bet: Cardinals vs. Dodgers o8.5 total runs (-110)
Both teams have gone over in >70% of their recent games—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
