It’s been a tale of two seasons for the Padres and Brewers in 2025. For San Diego, a terrific start has been followed by inconsistent play and several key injuries. Since May 10th, the team’s record is a mediocre 11-13. Milwaukee has been the exact opposite, winning 15 of its previous 24 games during that time. Entering Friday, both of these squads are firmly in contention for a spot in the National League playoff field. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday night’s showdown between the Padres and the Brewers.
Milwaukee enters tonight as favorites (-149) over San Diego, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook going into Friday’s contest.
Padres at Brewers prediction, preview
No team in baseball has been as hot as the Brewers, winners in nine of their last ten games. During that time, Milwaukee owns the National League’s second-best batting average (.268) and on-base percentage (.336), trailing only the Dodgers. The Brew Crew have been solid on the mound as well, led by Freddy Peralta (2.92 ERA), Jose Quintana (2.77 ERA), and tonight’s starter, Chad Patrick. The rookie has been outstanding through 13 outings, logging a 2.97 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 57 strikeouts.
The Padres will counter Patrick with a young arm of their own, Randy Vasquez. An afterthought during 2023’s Juan Soto trade, the former Yankees hurler has earned his spot in San Diego’s rotation. This season, the Dominican has notched a 3.99 ERA through 58.2 innings of work. Still, he doesn’t make things easy, recording a mediocre 1.47 WHIP. Keeping that in mind, it’s no surprise that Vasquez’s FIP of 5.35 suggests he’s due for some regression. However, this isn’t necessarily an ideal spot for the Brewers. Milwaukee’s .682 OPS against right-handers ranks as the seventh-lowest mark in baseball.
To make matters worse for the Padres, their offense has been in a funk recently. Since May 20th, only the Rangers (.205) have accounted for a lower team batting average than San Diego (.213). Hitters Fernando Tatis Jr. (.172 BA), Xander Bogaerts (.196), and Jake Cronenworth (.208) have stood out for all the wrong reasons. Still, Patrick will need to be careful when navigating a lineup filled with this much star power.
Padres at Brewers pick, best bet
There’s no question that the Padres don’t look like themselves at the moment. A roster with legitimate World Series hopes has seen poor hitting and inconsistent pitching diminish its postseason chances. Unfortunately for San Diego, it’s difficult to envision Vasquez being the guy to right this ship. The righty has coughed up a total of seven earned runs over his last two starts (6.85 ERA). That hasn’t been the case for Patrick, who hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start this season. Given the way these two offenses and pitchers have looked in recent weeks, it’s time to back the Brewers.
Best Bet: Brewers -1.5 (+138)
Vasquez has gotten lucky while Patrick remains a stealth Rookie of the Year contender. Factor in a red-hot lineup, and this could be a comfortable Milwaukee win.
