When these Phillies struggle, they sure struggle, huh? Especially offensively, with their recent stretch of at-bats game-to-game being pretty lackluster. They’ve lost six of their last seven games, and when they’ve been hot, it’s been isolated. They’ve gone cold as of late, and that’s where I see an opportunity for Pittsburgh. Sure, the Phillies are favored, but there’s real value on the Pirates tonight Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday night baseball game between the Pirates and the Phillies.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Pirates vs. Phillies prediction, preview
The Phillies enter this game off a rough stretch, having dropped six of their last seven games. Joe Ross, with a 4.34 ERA (2-1 this season), takes the mound for Philadelphia. Ross has struggled with command, evidenced by his 6.8 K/9 rate, ranking in the bottom 20% among MLB starters. His xERA of 4.75 suggests luck with contact, making this a prime opportunity for Pittsburgh to capitalize.
The Pirates have had their own issues but are starting Bailey Falter (4-3, 3.14 ERA), who’s been solid. He’s allowed fewer than two earned runs in four of his last five starts, with a 1.08 WHIP and 3.33 xERA. His sinker has been especially effective, limiting opponents to a .176 batting average and a .216 slugging percentage. Falter’s 8.5 K/9 rate outpaces Ross’s, giving Pittsburgh an edge on the mound.
The Phillies rank seventh in MLB with 4.7 runs per game, but their offense has sputtered. Trea Turner and Bryce Harper haven’t been as consistent. Turner is hitting .300 but lacks power, while Harper’s bat has cooled despite a .368 OBP. Philadelphia’s bullpen also ranks 21st in ERA (4.03), and their FIP (4.33) suggests further regression. Without Aaron Nola and possibly Zack Wheeler, their pitching staff has shown vulnerabilities.
Pittsburgh’s offense has been struggling, but key pieces like Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz remain threats. Cruz’s 10.2% barrel rate is in the top 25% of MLB hitters. Reynolds leads the team with 34 RBIs. Despite offensive struggles, Pittsburgh has just enough to challenge Ross and Philadelphia’s shaky pitching.
Phillies vs. Pirates pick, best bet
The Phillies have gone 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. With their bullpen stretched thin, I’m backing the Pirates at +1.5 (-131). Pittsburgh has been solid at home (6-4 ATS in their last 10), and with Falter on the mound, they have a strong chance to cover. The under has hit in seven of their last eight home games, and I expect a low-scoring affair.
With Philadelphia’s inconsistency, I like Pittsburgh to cover the spread. The Phillies might win, but the Pirates will keep it close.
Best bet: Pirates +1.5 (-140) vs. Phillies
Falter has a .176 BAA and a .216 SLG% allowed—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
