Freaking finally. We suffered through an MLB Rivalry Weekend in which we saw the Sox face off against the Atlanta Braves. It just didn’t fit right. Which, you might say, is a fair assessment of the spirit of the Red Sox’s whole-team chemistry right now. It just doesn’t fit right. It’s off. Roman Anthony awaits four hours down the expressway from the Bronx in Worcester, and these Boston bats are well aware how important a divisional series this is. So, too, are the fearsome Yankees, who’ve got no intention of letting the Sox catch a wave. And, to boot, it’s the first time we’re seeing this rivalry this year! Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this glorious Friday night baseball game between the Yankees and the Red Sox.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
The first Yankees-Red Sox matchup of 2025 is upon us, and the stakes are high. New York (38-23) leads the AL East by 5.5 games, while Boston (30-34) is fading fast. With a -190 moneyline against a pitcher who owns a 5.19 ERA, the disparity between these two teams is glaring, but this rivalry always brings drama.
Will Warren may be raw, but he’s got swing-and-miss stuff. His 29.5% strikeout rate ranks him in the 88th percentile among MLB pitchers, and the Red Sox’s fifth-highest K-rate vs. right-handed pitchers gives him a clear path to success tonight. That said, Warren’s struggles with hard contact (bottom 6% in exit velocity) could allow Boston’s lineup to capitalize—especially with their ability to generate power. But the Yankees’ potent bullpen (fifth in SIERA, sixth in xFIP) will likely keep things under control if Warren falters.
Now, about that Yankees offense: Aaron Judge is doing what he does best, leading the league in virtually every hitting metric (.392 BA, 1.250 OPS), and with his .383 average against right-handers this season, he’s primed to feast on Walker Buehler. Buehler, sporting a 4.44 ERA and allowing 1.5 HR/9, has shown his vulnerability. The Yankees’ home-run-happy lineup (second in MLB with 1.6 HR/game) is tailor-made to exploit these flaws. Judge, who’s driven in 50 RBIs already, is likely to add another tonight, especially considering his absurd .467 wOBA in June.
On the other hand, Buehler’s ability to generate soft contact (36th percentile in expected ERA) keeps him somewhat competitive, but his road splits (6.00 ERA in 21 IP) suggest he’ll struggle in the Bronx against this lineup. With the Yankees leading the majors in opponent batting average (.216), they should neutralize Boston’s offensive threats, particularly with Devers and Duran coming off uneven stretches (Devers hitting .211 with two doubles and two RBIs over his last five games; Duran batting .235 with a .303 OBP in his last 12 games).
Red Sox vs. Yankees pick, best bet
Yankees have gone 6-1 in their last seven at home, and their offense shows no signs of slowing down. Boston, however, has dropped eight of its last 11, with pitching issues exacerbating their problems. Their bullpen—while capable—hasn’t been reliable enough to give them the edge. With Buehler’s inconsistent form and the Red Sox missing key hitters like Casas and Yoshida, it’s hard to see them keeping pace with New York tonight.
I like the Yankees to win comfortably here, especially with their balanced offense and superior pitching depth. The game total, though, is a bit trickier. While both teams have the potential for explosive offense, the Yankees’ ability to limit hard contact and Boston’s lack of punch without key hitters makes the under more appealing.
It pains me to say it. I bleed red, here. But! Warren may struggle, but with Judge and company facing off against Buehler, I expect a controlled, high-leverage win for New York.
Best bet: Yankees -1.5 (+105) vs. Red Sox
Pinch my nose and betray my heart—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
