Friday night starts a great weekend of baseball with 28 of the 30 teams in Major League Baseball set to face off under the lights. The only exceptions are the Rays and Marlins, who meet in a Sunshine State showdown on Friday afternoon. A couple of games start just before 7:00 p.m. ET, with 12 more games spread throughout the rest of the night. If you’re looking to swing for the fences and start your weekend with a bang, let’s dive into Friday’s top home run props from this busy night of action. Considering the many factors involved, my top three home run props on the board are Christian Yelich, Brandon Nimmo and Lawrence Butler.
Just a quick reminder before we dive in that all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half their games, home run props are never “safe” picks even if every single factor is in their favor. The upside to playing home run props is that they offer big returns when they hit, and they are also always a fun way to flex your knowledge. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be counted on since they are long shots. You can also combine these home run props with other picks into SGP or parlay plays, and I also like to play them at small money in round robin formats to boost their upside even higher.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for today.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Christian Yelich to record 1+ home runs (+500)
The Brewers are home to face the Padres this weekend after going 5-1 in Philadelphia and Cincinnati and 9-1 over their last 10 games. They’ll take on Padres’ starter Randy Vasquez, who has given up seven home runs in his last five starts over 26 1/3 innings.
Vasquez has given up a 15.0% barrel rate and 48.8% hard-hit rate over those five starts, and five of those seven homers that he gave up over that span were hit by left-handed batters, who have a .287 average and .393 wOBA against him this season.
Yelich has hit 12 of his 13 homers this season against right-handed pitchers and six in his last 12 games. During that 12-game span, he is hitting an impressive .429 with a .545 wOBA. He has a 48.7% hard-hit rate and 15.4% barrel rate over that span and has multiple hard-hit batted ball events in five of his last six games.
Since he’s hitting it so well and in a favorable matchup against Vasquez, he’s one of my top home run props for this Friday.
Brandon Nimmo to record 1+ home runs (+400)
The Mets are in Denver to face the Rockies at Coors Field. There is some rain in the area so the conditions may not be perfect, but aside from snowstorms, it’s always a place to consider when you’re shopping for home run props. To further improve the environment, the Rockies are starting Antonio Senzatela, who is 1-10 with a 7.14 ERA, 5.14 FIP and 11 home runs allowed in 12 starts.
Lefties have hit .409 against Senzatela with three homers and a .445 wOBA. Nimmo himself has had success in this matchup in the past, going 4-for-11 with three homers in their head-to-head meetings in the past.
Nimmo homered on Thursday against the Dodgers, giving him 10 long balls on the season. While his batting average has dropped, his hard-hit rate is actually at a career-high level of 51.5%. He also is on track for a career-high barrel rate at just over 10%, so his quality of contact is still plenty strong enough to back him at these odds as one of the best home run props on the board this Friday. Double-check the weather, but for now, it looks clear enough to not be a “stay away” situation.
Lawrence Butler to record 1+ home runs (+390)
In another homer-friendly spot, the Athletics host the Orioles at Sutter Health Park, where the wins is expected to be blowing out with temperatures in the upper 80s. The Orioles will start righty Dean Kremer, who has had a few good outings but comes in with a 4.70 ERA, 4.35 FIP, and 10 homers allowed in 67 innings. Most of his troubles have been on the road, where he has a 6.07 ERA, 4.43 FIP and 1.47 HR/9.
Of the Athletics bats available, Butler stands out as a good value, since lefties have hit seven of those 10 home runs against Kremer and have a .393 wOBA against him on the year.
Butler has been heating up lately with three homers in his last 14 games with a .382 batting average, .498 wOBA and 55.6% hard-hit rate. He has an average exit velocity of 91.9 miles per hour during that stretch with a 13.9% barrel rate. He also has multiple hard-hit batted ball events in three of his last four games.
Just over half of Butler’s blasts have come at home, with eight coming against right-handed hurlers like Kremer. He’s a little bit of a longshot, but he gets extra at-bats from the leadoff spot and has been hitting the ball very well over the last two weeks.
