The Oklahoma City Thunder entered the NBA Finals as monstrous -650 favorites to win the series over the Indiana Pacers, with this number shifting to as high as -700 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Oklahoma City held -275 odds on the -1.5 series spread when the odds opened, and the talking points seemed to be how easy this series would be for the Thunder.
Well, the Pacers grabbed a 1-0 series lead by beating the Thunder 111-110 in Oklahoma City with Tyrese Haliburton’s game-winning shot with 0.3 remaining giving the Pacers their lone lead of the game. Indiana has stolen the home court advantage, and there has been some serious odds movement on DraftKings Sportsbook. This also marked the first-ever road Finals victory in the Pacers’ franchise history.
Heading into Game 2, the Thunder now hold -300 odds of winning the series on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pacers now hold +245 of winning the NBA Finals, with the initial odds being as large as +500.
These come-from-behind, narrow victories continue to be looked at with a skeptical eye by NBA bettors, but it has been a blueprint that has worked for them throughout this Pacers playoff run. Indiana never quits during a game and manages to keep games within reach while taking their opponents’ best punch. They overcame 25 turnovers to still produce the victory in Game 1 against this scrappy Thunder team.
Historically, teams that win Game 1 of the NBA Finals go on to win the series 70.5% of the time. Across the playoffs overall, teams that win Game 1 of a series go on to win 77.9% of the time. The Golden State Warriors were the last NBA Champions to win the NBA Finals after dropping the opening game in the 2021-22 season.
Looking at the Game 2 odds, the spread has only shifted more in favor of the Thunder.
Oklahoma City will enter as 11-point favorites and -520 favorites on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pacers hold +390 odds of winning the game with the game total set at 227.5.
This backs up a clear trend that has been established throughout the NBA playoffs. Since 2021, higher seeds have gone 21-7 in Game 2 with a +12.1 point differential after losing Game 1. Across these playoffs, teams that have lost Game 1 have outscored opponents by an average of 12.0 points. This includes the Thunder beating the Nuggets by 43 points in Game 2 in the Conference Semifinals.
The Thunder looked to be the better team for most of the opening series matchup. But you have to keep your foot on the gas for all 48 minutes against this Pacers team, and we will see if this is a lesson that has been learned from the Game 1 loss. Whether this was a fluke win or the Pacers once again proving people wrong is to be seen, but there is still plenty of value on Indiana if you are a believer and a bit more of a tolerable price point from a Thunder perspective if this is your thought process.
