There are seven MLB games on the main slate for Saturday, with the first starting at 4:05 p.m. EST. Here are three value picks for the slate. This article is written before the actual lineups come out, so keep track of updates throughout the day.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
SP Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, $6,500
The Chicago White Sox are the gift that keeps on giving for opposing pitchers. Against right-handed pitching, Chicago is 29th in ISO and dead-last in wOBA. Chicago has hit the third-fewest home runs in the MLB, scored the fifth-fewest runs, and hit with the third-worst batting average.
Wacha only has a 17.7% strikeout rate, but he’s rarely beaten himself this season. The walk rate is a respectable 6.4% while he’s allowed only five home runs in 68.2 innings. He’s not as good as the 2.88 ERA suggests, but the FIP is still a decent 3.4.
Wacha has put up double-digit FPTS in nine of 12 starts with three of those over 20 FPTS. In his most recent outing, he stymied a good Tigers offense for seven innings without allowing an earned run.
The ownership will likely be high for Wacha, so just make sure to differentiate elsewhere.
SP Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins, $7,000
The range of outcomes has been wide for Bradley this season. He’s gone over 20 FPTS four times with a high of 32.8 FPTS. On the flip side, he’s finished with single-digit FPTS four times with one game in the negatives.
Bradley has been known as a pitcher who can miss bats, but miss the plate as well. He averages 96 mph on the fastball and posted a 28% strikeout rate in his rookie season. That number is down to 22% through 70.2 innings this year, but it’s come with fewer home runs. With that said, the 4.24 FIP is higher than the 3.95 ERA.
Miami has hit the fourth-fewest home runs and scored the eighth-fewest runs. Against right-handed pitching, the Marlins are 13th in strikeouts, 20th in ISO and 19th in wOBA.
In his three most recent starts, Bradley finished with 23.3, 19.6 and 32.8 FPTS. Both the trend and matchup are our friends. Just know that Bradley is always in play to blow up… and not in the good way as the kids like to say.
2B Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers at Washington Nationals, $3,000
In offseason drafts, Semien kept dropping as many were worried about his age and decline in power last season since he finished with a .154 ISO. In the three prior seasons, Semien had a .201, .181 and .273 ISO. Those who faded him have looked smart, as Semien has been brutal. The ISO is only .098 while the slash line reads .210/.298/.308.
Was it just a cold streak, or the beginning of the end?
Over the last six games, Semien has been en fuego. In 22 plate appearances, he’s racked up 11 hits, two doubles, three home runs and two stolen bases. The ISO is .611! The BABIP is .800! Small sample size alert. That said, he’s on a heater, which has resulted in him moving up two slots in the batting order from eighth to sixth.
Saturday’s matchup is against lefty Mitchell Parker, who has a 4.42 FIP and only a 15.1% strikeout rate. Semien has always had more success against lefties in his career.
