“The Machine,” Merab Dvalishvili, will defend his Bantamweight Championship against former 135-pound king Sean O’Malley in the Main Event of UFC 316. This event will occur at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. Will Dvalishvili’s win streak grow to 13, or is a second reign incoming for “Suga”? The Women’s Bantamweight Champion Julianna Pena will defend her title against two-time Olympic Gold Medalist and PFL Champion Kayla Harrison.
Along with traditional sports betting and daily fantasy, you can now have more action than ever for UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2! Check out DraftKings UFC Pick6! Here are my five favorite picks for Saturday’s UFC 316 PPV.
Sean O’Malley Less Than 72.5 Significant Strikes
O’Malley has only recorded over 72.5 significant strikes in two of his last five fights. That is because O’Malley has one goal when he fights: to finish his opponent as quickly as possible. Six of O’Malley’s previous seven victories have come by finish in the first three rounds. With his gifted and special power, opponents typically are done when he lands.
Even though he lost a unanimous decision, the former champion showed positive signs at the end of his last fight. O’Malley landed devastating body shots to Dvalishvili in the final round and should be a key ingredient to a successful performance on Saturday.
O’Malley won two of his last three fights by decision, but he hasn’t had back-to-back decision victories since 2018. If O’Malley pressures the champion early in this contest, it likely will not take many significant strikes to finish the job.
Julianna Pena More Than 50.5 Significant Strikes
Even though Pena is facing a terrifying challenger in Harrison, she has a history of being an underdog in a title fight. Pena submitted Amanda Nunes, who is regarded as the greatest women’s fighter ever.
I believe Pena will give Harrison the toughest test of her career while having a legit chance to pull off the upset. But asking Pena to total more than 50.5 significant strikes is much easier. She has done that in each of her previous three bouts. With Pena’s championship pedigree, she will likely rise to the occasion.
Although Harrison is taller by two inches, Pena possesses a significant four-inch reach advantage (69″ vs. 66″). Pena needs to be aggressive and not allow Harrison to control the pace of the contest. If she does so, totaling 51 significant strikes is highly doable for the two-time champion.
Joe Pyfer More Than 85.5 Fantasy Points
Pyfer has been a fantasy machine in the UFC so far. His total of 85.5 was surprising because Pyfer has hit this mark in four of his last five contests. He is facing a tough veteran in Kelvin Gastelum.
With his size advantage, Pyfer will give Gastelum many problems in this fight. Although Gastelum has never been knocked out, Pyfer stated this week that he is the guy to do so. If he can finish Gastelum, Pyfer would put himself in a great position to record 86 fantasy points with ease.
Kelvin Gastelum More Than 46.5 Significant Strikes
As I previously mentioned, it will be a tough challenge for Gastelum to beat Pyfer, but his total in significant strikes is still too low. Gastelum has finished with 46.5-plus fantasy points in four of his last five fights. Most recently, he beat Daniel Rodriguez in June 2024, totaling 112 points.
Pyfer is an exciting prospect, but fighting top competition isn’t new for Gastelum. He has been in the UFC since 2013 and has fought former champions Tyron Woodley, Johny Hendricks, Vitor Belfort, Chris Weidman, Michael Bisping, Israel Adesanya, and Robert Whittaker.
Gastelum has a big advantage in experience and will not be surprised by Pyfer’s power. Yes, Pyfer has the power edge, but by the stats, Gastelum averages more significant strikes (3.74 vs. 3.72) per minute at a higher rate (42% vs. 41%). Since Pyfer is taller, Gastelum’s path to success is having a high output of punches while displaying elite defense.
Joshua Van More Than 96.5 Fantasy Points
The featured bout of the Prelims is an exciting flyweight matchup, as No. 12 Bruno Silva takes on No. 14 Joshua Van. Van is one of the best rising prospects in the division. He is 13-2 with eight finishes at 23 years old.
Since suffering his first UFC loss to Charles Johnson in July 2024, he has rattled off three victories in the last nine months. Van only scored 68.7 fantasy points in his previous fight, but had 100-plus in three of four before that. He showed he can bounce back after a down fantasy outing when he recorded over 100 points after his loss to Johnson.
If Van uses his elite 80 percent takedown defense and keeps the majority of this bout on his feet, he should have great success. Van’s most significant advantage over Silva is on the feet, as he lands 8.10 significant strikes per minute, 0.46 more than Silva.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta More Than 65.5 Fantasy Points
No. 11 Waldo Cortes-Acosta is looking to get a win over the highest-ranked opponent he has faced. He is fighting No. 7 Serghei Spivac in a three-round heavyweight bout.
Cortes-Acosta is 6-1 in the UFC and is coming off a knockout victory over Ryan Spann in March. Spivac has the edge on the ground while Cortes-Acosta is better on the feet. Cortes-Acosta averages 5.76 significant strikers per minute, over two more than Spivac.
Good news for Cortes-Acosta, he has a 66 percent takedown defense, which will need to be used on Saturday. Cortes-Acosta has shown he has high upside, scoring at least 99 fantasy points in three of his last five outings. That can be achieved against Spivac if he can get into a standup battle. This is a great value play considering his recent performances.
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