It’s one of the greatest days in sports: Tarik Skubal ($11,500) day. The reigning AL Cy Young and pitching triple crown winner, who also happens to play for the best team in baseball, is must-see TV.
In addition to Skubal, here are seven other players I’m targeting from tonight’s 12-game featured DFS slate on DraftKings.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Rally Cap [$50K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs, $11,500 – Yes, Skubal is by far the most expensive pitcher on tonight’s slate, and yes, he’s facing off against an extremely strong Cubs offense that has posted the league’s fourth-best OPS this season. But he’s also combined for four hits, no walks, and 20 strikeouts in 16 innings over his last two starts (41.1 FPTS per game). There’s an air of inevitability to him, and the fact that he’s a southpaw means he should still be fine against Chicago’s two strongest hitters, Kyle Tucker ($6,200) and Pete Crow-Armstrong ($5,800). Expect a well-rested Skubal to do what he does best.
Value
Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals, $6,600 – Martin had a rough go of it in his last outing, giving up four runs in six innings and getting saddled with the loss (7.9 FPTS), but prior to that, he’d given up two or fewer earned runs in each of his last three outings. His location wasn’t as good in his most recent start, as he left a few eminently hittable balls, but his velocity, spin rates, and pitch mix remained relatively constant, so no major reasons for long-term concern. Plus, he’s facing a Royals offense that just isn’t great — they’ve posted the fifth-worst OPS this season and hit the fewest homers. You also won’t have to worry about Martin issuing free passes; he ranks the 82nd percentile in walk rate and Kansas City ranks last in the league in walks.
INFIELDER
Stud
Pete Alonso, New York Mets at Colorado Rockies, $5,800 – Picking Skubal means you’ll have to refrain from taking either of the Dodgers’ sluggers, Shohei Ohtani ($6,500) or Freddie Freeman ($5,900) in this spot, but with Alonso having found his form, that’s totally fine. Polar Bear Pete has slashed .333/.409/.795 with five homers over his last 10 games (13.2 FPTS per game), which is actually better production than either Ohtani or Freeman. Plus, he’ll be playing today at 5,280 feet of elevation against the Colorado Rockies, who, despite sweeping the Miami Marlins, are still on pace for easily the worst winning percentage in the modern era. Colorado’s Antonio Senzatela ($4,300) has somehow given up four or more earned runs in nine of his last 10 starts and leads all of the major leagues in both losses and hits allowed.
Stud
Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians, $4,300 – Paredes is the ultimate boom-or-bust player: despite slashing just .179/.214/.436 over his last 10 games, he’s still averaging a solid seven fantasy points per game across that span because he’s hit three homers, a double, and a triple. The 26-year-old is coming off his best game of the season, a two-for-four, two-homer, three-RBI (32-FPT) performance against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and while it’s a tall task to expect him to repeat that tonight, but I have high hopes for him against Logan Allen ($6,000), who has given up an above-average number of pulled fly balls this season, induces whiffs at just a ninth-percentile rate, and also struggles with his control.
Value
Willie MacIver, Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles, $2,700 – MacIver has been serving as the backup to Shea Langeliers ($3,900) for the badly-slumping Athletics, but with Langeliers leaving yesterday’s win over the Minnesota Twins with a flank injury, I’d be surprised if he ended up playing today. That should mean MacIver should receive starter-level opportunity from a backup-level salary, and he’s hit safely in each of his last two games and slashed .308/.357/.385 in his MLB career so far (5.4 FPTS per game). That level of production shouldn’t have come as a surprise, though, as he’s hitting .389 for Triple-A Las Vegas this season. Orioles starter Dean Kremer ($6,800), meanwhile, ranks in just the 11th percentile in whiff percentage and is backed up by the league’s fourth-worst bullpen.
OUTFIELDER
Stud
Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, $5,000 – Rodríguez has been in extremely solid form over his last 10 games, slashing .326/.356/.395 across that span, even if the fact that he’s only had two extra-base hits has limited his fantasy output (8.4 FPTS per game). He should be a good candidate to continue his hot hitting against Kyle Hendricks ($5,500), who’s given up three or more earned runs in eight of his last nine starts, induces whiffs at just a second-percentile rate, and whose most frequent-pitch is a 79.2-MPH changeup. Rodríguez has stolen a base in two of his last four games and, given his 94th-percentile sprint speed and Hendricks’ slow pitches, I’d almost be surprised if he didn’t do so tonight. Plus, the Angels have the league’s third-worst bullpen, so his hitting prospects should remain good all game.
Stud
Cody Bellinger, New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox, $4,500 – The 2019 MVP is coming off an excellent game, going two-for-four and hitting a two-run shot in a 4-0 win over the Guardians on Thursday, and overall, he’s continuing to see the ball well in what has been a resurgent season. Plus, he’s playing in the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, where he’s slashed .284/.339/.550 (9.4 FPTS per game) and hit seven of his nine home runs, which makes sense, given that it’s the third-most homer-friendly park for left-handed batters. Red Sox starter Walker Buehler ($7,600), a former teammate of Bellinger’s with the Dodgers, got smacked in his most recent start and has given up four long balls in his last four starts. Lefties have hit Buehler’s four-seamer to the tune of a .647 slugging percentage this season.
Value
Tommy Edman, Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals, $3,800 – Los Angeles is a team that has been uplifted by unsung heroes and throughout his two seasons with the team, Edman has been just that, an understated utility man who nonetheless provides exceptional value to the team. Edman has double-digit fantasy points in three of his last five games despite dealing with a nagging ankle injury, and he’s an exceptional contact hitter, with an 86th-percentile expected batting average and 72nd percentile whiff percentage. Sonny Gray ($9,700) ranks in just the 33rd percentile in the former category. He’s also alternated elite starts with bad ones across his last six and is coming off a seven-inning shutout (36.8 FPTS). It’ll be Edman’s first time facing his former club, although he’s never been teammates with Gray.
