Cubs fans have very little to complain about, what with the staggering breakout of new superstar Pete Crow-Armstrong, the bat-to-ball prophecy fulfilled re. Nico Hoerner, and the second shoe finally dropping on Seiya Suzuki’s international hitting pedigree. Having said that, I’d bet they wish they saw a little bit more out of tonight’s starter against the Detroit Tigers, Ben Brown. After a solid rookie campaign, Brown’s been hit-or-miss this year (more later), and that’s a tough recipe heading into Comerica Park against these AL-Central-leading Tigers. Who, by the way, are sending out their version of 1999 Pedro Martinez, Tarik Skubal. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday night baseball game between the Tigers and the Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Tigers vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Skubal has been lights out. His 2.26 ERA (2.32 xERA) is a testament to his dominance, with a 0.79 WHIP and 99 strikeouts in 75.2 innings. He’s a top-tier pitcher, boasting a 14.1 K/BB ratio, and his stuff is nearly unhittable. But as great as he’s been, there’s a hint of vulnerability against teams that can capitalize on mistakes. Despite his ace status, Skubal has been known to yield the long ball at Comerica Park (1.6 HR/9), and with a Cubs lineup that ranks 3rd in OPS and 5th in homers, that’s something to consider.
Chicago’s offense has been on fire, especially against left-handed pitchers. Over the last 30 days, they’ve posted a wRC+ of 118 versus southpaws, the 4th-best in MLB. And it’s not just about hitting home runs. The Cubs are adept at getting on base, sitting 5th in walk-to-strikeout ratio. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker have been the central and supercharged catalysts for this surge, with Crow-Armstrong’s .297 ISO and Tucker’s impressive power-speed combo. Against Skubal, they’ll need to avoid chasing pitches and make the most of every opportunity.
Ben Brown, on the other hand, brings some uncertainty. His 5.72 ERA and 1.46 WHIP reveal inconsistencies, but there’s a glimmer of hope. Over his last six starts, Brown’s xFIP stands at 2.56, and his K-BB% of 27.3% suggests his stuff is better than his ERA suggests. If he can keep his command tight and limit the free passes, he could surprise. Skubal might dominate, but the Cubs’ lineup isn’t afraid of any pitcher, and they’ve proven they can adjust on the fly.
Cubs vs. Tigers pick, best bet
I’m leaning toward the Cubs +1.5 here. Despite the pitching mismatch, Chicago’s bullpen (3.40 ERA over the last 30 days) is somehow better than the Tigers’. Detroit’s bullpen ranks 21st in ERA over the same period, and with Skubal likely to go deep into the game, any small slip-up could give the Cubs a chance to cover the spread. The Tigers’ recent run-line performance (5-7 in their last 12) further bolsters this value, especially given that three of those wins were by just one run.
Betting trends also support the Cubs—mercy. They’ve covered in nine of their last 10 road games against American League teams after a win, and despite their offensive success, they’ve kept games close, allowing their bullpen to shine. Meanwhile, Detroit has struggled to cover against National League teams, going 2-4 in their last 6 such matchups.
For the total, I’m staying under. Both teams have been lean on scoring recently, with the Cubs averaging just 3.6 runs per game in their last 10 and the Tigers posting a similarly modest 3.4 runs per game over their last six. With two dominant pitchers and solid bullpen support on both sides, I’m not expecting this one to turn into a shootout. But I’m mostly staying away from a total.
With the Tigers’ bullpen vulnerability and the Cubs’ track record on the road, I’m betting the Cubs to cover +1.5 at -140. Keep it tight, avoid the strikeouts, and I believe they’ll hang around long enough to cash this one. Skubal be damned.
Best bet: Cubs +1.5 (-145) at Tigers
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