Kansas City enters Busch Stadium for Game 1 of today’s doubleheader with a surprising 10-7 victory under their belt. But don’t let that victory fool you—the Royals’ offense has been as inconsistent as any in baseball, ranking near the bottom in total runs scored. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday doubleheader baseball game between the Royals and the Cardinals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cardinals vs. Royals (Game 1) prediction, preview
The afternoon one-two punch of Noah Cameron on the mound and Bobby Witt Jr. provides the spark they need, but it’s Cameron’s stellar 1.05 ERA (second in the AL) that stands out. He has kept hitters at bay with a .144 BAA and ranks in the 92nd percentile for barrel percentage, giving him a massive edge in this matchup. Mikolas (3.90 ERA) has the steady reputation but has been showing signs of regression, particularly with a drop in fastball velocity and barrel percentage.
Looking at the hitters, Witt Jr. has been leading the charge for the Royals, driving in 35 runs and ranking 4th in stolen bases (20). His .494 SLG shows his extra-base potential despite his team’s overall offensive struggles. Vinnie Pasquantino adds further punch with eight home runs but Maikel Garcia’s .313 average remains the team’s offensive bright spot. However, Kansas City’s woes against pitchers like Mikolas could keep them from sustained scoring. Witt ranks in the 91st percentile for sprint speed, making him nightmare for any sort of shenanigans on the basepaths.
Now, turning to St. Louis, they boast a solid lineup but one that’s been outpaced by the Royals in recent performance. Brendan Donovan (.321 AVG) is the hot bat, but Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Arenado have yet to find consistent power. In fact, the Cardinals sit 24th in the league for home runs. With Miles Mikolas on the mound, they’re relying on his home field advantage, where he’s held opponents to just .176 BAA. However, with his recent regression and the team’s inability to consistently generate power, the Cardinals are far from invincible here
Royals vs. Cardinals (Game 1) pick, best bet
The betting trends support the Royals in this underdog role: they’ve been 7-1 as underdogs in their last eight games and have managed to stay competitive even against teams with winning records. Their pitching—ranked fourth in team ERA (3.19)—gives them a shot to limit St. Louis’ offense, which has been scuffling to generate power. On the other hand, Mikolas’ vulnerability against an offense that can create runs in spurts, despite being inconsistent, gives Kansas City more value at the +110 odds.
Despite their offensive inefficiencies, Cameron’s dominance and the Royals’ ability to outperform expectations as underdogs tilt the scales in their favor for Game 1. The pitching matchup is key. It’s why we were on them yesterday to steal a win before the rain-out. We go again today.
Best bet: Royals (+110) at Cardinals [Game 1]
Royals steal back-to-back victories—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
