This is the first game of a three-game series in Colorado. There is a slight chance of rain.
Kodai Senga is scheduled to pitch for New York while Antonio Senzatela should get the nod for Colorado.
Mets at Rockies prediction, preview
Kodai Senga had a walk problem when he came over to the states two seasons ago, posting a 4.17 BB/9. Through 62 innings this season, that number is 4.06. He had a 29.1% strikeout rate, though. That’s down to 23.5% this season. The FIP was higher than the ERA during his rookie season. That has maintained this season: 1.6 ERA vs. 3.2 FIP. Senga is only allowing a 6.7% barrel rate and he’s been fortunate, stranding 86% of base runners. The walks are going to haunt him at some point, but he’s a good pitcher. Now he has to go to Coors Field for the first time in his career. Will his forkball be effective in Denver?
Senga has been mostly split neutral with a slight bias towards lefties having a smidge more success against him, or at least making things more difficult.
Senga has allowed more than two earned runs only once this season. There have been five starts with no earned runs allowed. Senga just faced the Rockies in the most recent start, going 6.1 innings, striking out seven, walking two and allowing two earned runs on two hits. That game was in New York, though.
Against right-handed pitching, the Rockies have struck out at the highest rate while having the 17th-best ISO. The wOBA is 29th-best in MLB.
Antonio Senzatela has a 7.14 ERA but the FIP is only 5.4. Yippee! The BABIP is an elevated .394, so there has been some misfortune, but the average exit velocity is 91.1 mph, barrel rate is 10.8% and the hard hit rate is 47.4%. The strikeout rate is a miniscule 11%.
Senzatela has been crushed by both righties and lefties, but righties have done more damage against him. Interestingly, he’s been worse on the road than at home.
Senzatela did not allow an earned run in his first two starts of the season. Since then, he’s been scored upon in 10 straight starts with nine of those with at least four earned runs. He allowed eight, six and seven earned runs over that span. In his most recent start against the Mets in New York, Senzatela gave up seven earned runs in four innings.
The Mets have struck out at the 23rd-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being seventh in ISO. The wOBA is ninth-best.
As for bullpens, New York has the third-lowest FIP while Colorado has the 17th-lowest.
Mets at Rockies pick, best bet
I think there’s a chance Senga has difficulty with his breaking pitches, which could allow the Rockies to put up some runs in this one. Senzatela has been an absolute train wreck this season, and I don’t see that train stopping for anyone. Choo choo!
