The long grind of the 82-game regular season and first three rounds of the playoffs are over, paving the way for an NBA Finals matchup. The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers will face off after winning their respective conferences. This will mark each franchise’s first Finals appearance in over 12 years, with Oklahoma City last appearing in 2011-12 and Indiana in 1999-2000.
Indiana has successfully built off last year’s NBA Conference Finals run and defeated the New York Knicks to earn the Eastern Conference title. After a slow 10-15 start to the season, the Pacers finished the year with a 40-17 record, which would have been a 58-win pace over a full season. They carried this momentum into the playoffs with their deep rotations and pace of play proving problematic in the opening three rounds.
Oklahoma City has officially flipped the switch from exciting young team to clear title favorites. It completed one of the most successful rebuilds in NBA history and still has plenty of youth and draft capital to make the future extremely bright. But don’t let this downplay the Thunder’s legitimacy now as they enter the Finals with a historically great defense, the reigning MVP of the league and depth on par with this Indiana squad.
The Thunder enter the NBA Finals as massive -700 favorites to win the Finals on DraftKings Sportsbook while the Pacers hold +500 odds of pulling off the upset.
Looking at the Game 1 odds, the Thunder are 9.5-point favorites and -410 on the moneyline. The Pacers hold +320 odds of pulling off the upset, with the over/under set at 231 for this matchup.
With plenty on the line in the NBA Finals series opener, here are my favorite prop bets for this Thunder vs. Pacers Game 1.
Tyrese Haliburton Under 17.5 Points (-115)
It has been an incredible playoff run for Tyrese Haliburton. The Pacers’ star is the engine of their entire offense and has done plenty to discount the “most overrated” label he mistakenly picked up. However, this Thunder defense is as difficult a matchup as he will see. Oklahoma City finished the regular season ranked third in opponent points allowed and first in defensive rating. It continues to lead the pack in defensive rating this postseason, with the number improving from 106.6 to 104.7. Expect the likes of Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and Jalen Williams to each take some turns hounding Haliburton with the ball in his hands.
Haliburton averaged 18.6 points per game in the regular season and is producing 18.8 in the playoffs. However, he has more ups and downs than most traditional stars from a scoring perspective. While he has exploded for 30+ points in three postseason games, the Iowa State product has also been held to 11 or fewer points on four occasions.
Looking back at the regular-season matchups, Haliburton posted scoring outputs of 18 and four points against this Thunder team. He was limited to just six field-goal attempts in the December matchup between these two teams and shot 6-for-12 from the floor in the second matchup. Haliburton is a capable scorer, but he is a pass-first player whose unique shooting form could become problematic against this high-intensity defensive matchup. He has been held to under 17.5 points in four of the past nine postseason games, and this Thunder team will be the clear best defense he has faced. Don’t count the Pacers’ star out for the series, but expect the opening matchup to serve as a wake-up call as the Thunder make a clear effort to make others beat them and for Haliburton to fail to see the necessary shot volume to eclipse 17.5 points.
Myles Turner Over 5.5 Rebounds (+105)
After surviving years of trade rumors, Myles Turner remains in Indiana and has proven to be a huge part of this Pacers team. The two-time block champion’s ability to anchor a defense while stretching the floor on the offensive end is essential to the Pacers’ style of play, and he will need to perform at a high level in this series. Turner averaged 15.6 points and 6.5 rebounds per game across the regular season, but he has seen his numbers drop to 15.2 points and 4.9 rebounds per game in the postseason.
The 6-foot-11 big man failed to clear this total in any matchup with the Knicks and produced a measly 3.2 rebounds per game in the series. However, Turner tallied over 5.5 rebounds in four of the five games against the Cavaliers in the previous round, averaging 7.2 rebounds per game in that series. This is a cleaner comparison from a matchup standpoint, with Oklahoma City sure to lean on its dual big man lineups of Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren for stretches. Turner pulled in 11 rebounds during the first regular-season matchup with the Thunder and still grabbed five in the second game despite leaving the game after 20:08 of game time due to an oblique issue.
Both the Pacers and Thunder play at a high pace of play, which is great news in terms of opportunities for rebounding. Each team has ranked in the top three in pace throughout the postseason after finishing in the top seven during the regular season. Turner has played 21+ minutes in every playoff game, averaging 30.3 minutes per game in the postseason overall. Expect him to see plenty of opportunities and be necessary to slow down Oklahoma City’s big man production. Look for him to utilize his size and pull in at least six rebounds in the series opener.
Lu Dort Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+145)
The clear defensive focus from the Pacers’ perspective will be on slowing down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The NBA MVP has proven ready to be the face of an NBA championship team and is averaging 29.8 points per game in the playoffs after leading the league in scoring across the regular season. Gilgeous-Alexander is unique in his movement with the ball and is one of the best isolation scorers in basketball. Don’t expect Indiana to allow him to get comfortable and get many of these opportunities by throwing multiple defenders his way. Oklahoma City has a deep supporting cast, but the Pacers will be far more willing to live and die with the outcome of shots by the role players in contrast to the Thunder star.
Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of this has been Lu Dort. After shooting a career-best 41.2% from beyond the three-point line on 5.8 perimeter shots per game, Dort has seen his level of volume grow in the postseason with this method of defense in mind. He has taken 6.4 three-point attempts per game, but is connecting at just a 30.4% rate. Despite the percentage slip, Dort has connected on over 2.5 made three-pointers in four postseason games and is coming off a 4-for-10 three-point performance in the elimination victory over the Timberwolves.
He has taken some significant strides offensively throughout his career, but Dort remains a defensive-minded player. The All-Defensive First Team guard will likely get the first chance to match up with Tyrese Haliburton, which will grant him plenty of minutes on the floor. Dort also shot 45.0% from beyond the three-point arc at home this season in comparison to 35.2% on the road. The home Thunder crowd will be behind him for Game 1, so expect Indiana to leave him as the odd man out in its defensive game plan. Count on plenty of zone defense and multiple defenders targeting Gilgeous-Alexander, which will leave Dort open on the perimeter. All four of the games in which he has eclipsed this total have occurred at home, and I like his chances of adding to this list in the Game 1 matchup.
