The I-70 series is full swing, as in-state rivals meet in St. Louis. On Thursday, the Royals and Cardinals will face off for the second leg of a two-game doubleheader. On Tuesday, it was Kansas City that came out on top with a 10-7 victory. Tonight, the Cardinals will attempt to get revenge with one of their best pitchers on the mound. Which of these two postseason contenders will come out on top during this inter-league showdown? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday night’s battle between the Royals and Cardinals.
St. Louis enters tonight as favorites (-120) over Kansas City, with the over/under set at seven runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook going into Thursday’s contest.
Royals at Cardinals prediction, preview
Kansas City has struggled mightily at the plate this season, scoring the league’s third-fewest runs per game (3.34). That’s despite superstar-level production from shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (126 wRC+). It’s pitching that’s kept KC in the American League playoff picture. This season, the Royals have held opponents to the third-fewest runs in baseball (3.41). Surprisingly, that mark has been made possible without ace Cole Ragans at his best. The former All-Star has recorded a mediocre 4.53 ERA. However, Ragans’ 1.98 FIP suggests that he’s been one of the league’s unluckiest pitchers.
To keep the Royals in check, the Cardinals will hand the ball to Matthew Liberatore. The right-hander has enjoyed a career year, recording a 3.08 ERA and pristine 1.06 WHIP. Still, his career-long ERA of 4.49 suggests that regression could be coming soon. Last week, the 25-year-old surrendered four runs over five innings against the Rangers, one of baseball’s worst offenses. Kansas City’s lineup might be worse, but the team did manage to score ten runs on Tuesday.
As bad as the Royals have been at the plate, they struggle more against southpaws. This season, Kansas City owns the second-lowest slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers (.303). In comparison, the team has the tenth-best batting average against righties (.252). Right now, St. Louis only has the 16th-highest slugging percentage against lefties (.367). Keeping that in mind, the Cardinals don’t have much of an advantage on offense.
Royals at Cardinals pick, best bet
Statistically, St. Louis should be considered the more complete lineup. However, both squads rank inside the bottom five for runs scored since May 20th. As good as Liberatore has been, there’s no question that Ragans is the more talented pitcher. At this point, it’s only a matter of time until the left-hander gets back on track. Why not tonight against the rival Cardinals?
Best Bet: Royals ML (+100)
With all due respect to Liberatore, Ragans is the top arm in this matchup. In addition, neither offense has looked great recently. At even money, I’ll back the visiting Royals.
