This is the first game of a three-game series in Chicago.
Seth Lugo is scheduled to pitch for Kansas City, while Davis Martin should get the nod for Pittsburgh.
Royals at White Sox prediction, preview
Seth Lugo has a paltry 18.8% strikeout rate and 7.5% swinging strike rate. For most of his career, he’s been able to keep the ball in the yard. This year, though, he’s already allowed 11 home runs in 60 innings. The average exit velocity is 90.6 mph, while the hard hit rate is 45.5%. The 3.45 ERA looks nice on the surface, but the BABIP is only .248, the strand rate is an elevated 82.4% and the FIP doesn’t support it at 4.86.
Left-handed batters have given him trouble, as eight of the 11 home runs have been hit by them. The FIP is also 5.75, compared to 3.66 against righties. He has been better at home, and the road FIP is 6.28.
Lugo has gone at least six innings in seven of 10 starts. He’s allowed more than three earned runs only twice. One of those was in his last start against Detroit when he allowed four earned runs and two home runs in 3.1 innings.
Against right-handed pitching, the White Sox have struck out at the ninth-highest rate while having the 29th-best ISO. The wOBA is 30th-best in MLB.
Davis Martin only has a 14.4% strikeout rate. He’s walked 17 and allowed nine home runs in 68.2 innings. Martin threw 63.1 innings two seasons ago, so he’s in career-high territory now. The average exit velocity is 91.2 mph, while the hard hit rate is 46.2%. The 3.67 ERA is not supported by the 4.46 FIP.
Martin has been a smidge more effective against righties. Home has been more kind as well, as the FIP is 0.72 higher on the road.
Martin has gone at least five innings in all but one start. He’s allowed more than three earned runs three times. One of those was a seven-earned run drubbing by the Tigers in the second start of the season. In his most recent start against the Orioles in Baltimore, Martin allowed four earned runs in six innings. He’s struck out more than five batters in a game just once.
The Royals have struck out at the 30th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 28th in ISO. The wOBA is 26th-best.
As for bullpens, Kansas City has the 14th-lowest FIP while Chicago has the 24th-lowest.
Royals at White Sox Pick, Best Bet
I’m confident that Lugo can stymie the White Sox offense. My only concern is whether Martin and the White Sox bullpen get blown up or not. That said, the Royals aren’t a juggernaut of an offense, so I think this will be a relatively low-scoring game.
