Love it or hate it, this is the 2025 NBA Finals matchup. Indiana vs. Oklahoma City is not what many expected, but it’s what fans are getting.
Game 1 will be a major opportunity for both teams to set the tone and take control of the series. It’ll take place in Oklahoma City, the city’s first NBA Finals game since 2012.
The Thunder are nine-point favorites at home, and the game total is set at 231 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Game 1 between the Thunder and Pacers.
Pacers vs. Thunder Game 1 prediction
While Game 1 doesn’t determine the outcome of a series, it can certainly set the tone. In all but two playoff series this year, the Game 1 winner went on to win the series. The exceptions were Nuggets vs. Thunder and Warriors vs. Timberwolves. When factoring in Stephen Curry’s injury, the Denver vs. Thunder series is the only exception without an asterisk.
Setting the tone is important since both teams have a distinct play style. The Pacers want to run and beat you with pace and offense. They utilize a deep rotation with a veteran head coach running the show. The Thunder can match this, but they’re better defensively. Almost every player that touches the floor is a disruptor with Lu Dort and Alex Caruso perhaps the two best defenders in the series.
The Thunder enter Game 1 as nine-point favorites, which is quite a sizable gap considering the Pacers’ track record this postseason. Leads are not safe against Indiana, which makes closing a victory out difficult and holding a nine-point spread even more challenging.
Game 1 should not be a blowout for either team. Expect it to come down to the final few minutes.
Pacers vs. Thunder Game 1 pick, best bet
Tyrese Haliburton has been the center of Indiana’s success and will remain that in the NBA Finals. His play in the clutch has earned the Pacers multiple victories throughout the 2025 postseason.
His performance in Game 1 will determine how well the Pacers play as the offense runs through his creation. He’s excelled on big stages before, so he shouldn’t have any issues doing so in the NBA Finals despite this being his first appearance.
The Pacers are certainly the underdog, but nine points is a bit steep. Indiana can cover a nine-point spread on the road in Game 1. Even if the game looks out of reach with four minutes remaining, keep hope because the Pacers never give up and could still seal a backdoor cover.