Few franchises in baseball are more familiar with each other than the Guardians and Yankees. Since 2017, these two rivals have met in the postseason four different times. Unsurprisingly, the first two games in this early June series have been tight, low-scoring affairs. The Yankees will send staff ace Max Fried to the mound as they attempt to take tonight’s rubber match. However, expect the Guardians to play with confidence after Wednesday’s 4-0 victory.
Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday night’s showdown between the Yankees and Guardians.
New York enters tonight as heavy favorites (-285) over Cleveland, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook going into Thursday’s contest.
Guardians at Yankees prediction, preview
This season, the Yankees have scored 5.37 runs per game, third-most in the majors. However, it’s been a rough stretch for the Bombers on offense. Over their last six games, New York has only scored a total of 18 runs. Regardless, the Pinstripes still possess plenty of firepower; look no further than Aaron Judge. The two-time MVP is off to a historic start, slashing .389/.485/.752 at the plate. In addition, he’s clubbed 21 homers and 50 RBIs, ranking second among all American League hitters in both categories. #99 is joined by several quality hitters, including Ben Rice (142 wRC+), Paul Goldschmidt (141 wRC+) and Cody Bellinger (115 wRC+).
The biggest edge for New York is on the mound, as ace Max Fried will get the nod. Through 75.0 innings, the left-hander has recorded a 1.92 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 70 strikeouts. However, he got lit up last Friday against the Dodgers, surrendering six runs on eight hits. The 31-year-old will look to get back on track against a Guardians lineup scoring the tenth-fewest runs per game (4.02). Cleveland also owns the tenth-worst batting average against southpaws this season (.224).
To counter Fried, the Guardians will hand the ball to Slade Cecconi, making his fourth appearance of the season. So far, it’s been a rough season for the righty (5.28 ERA, 1.44 WHIP). With that being said, the 25-year-old has only allowed four runs over his last 11.0 innings (3.27 ERA). Unfortunately for Cleveland, the Yankees own baseball’s third-highest slugging percentage against right-handed pitching (.455). If the Guardians have any chance tonight, it might come down to their relievers. Cleveland’s bullpen owns a middling ERA of 3.85, good enough for tenth in the American League.
Guardians at Yankees pick, best bet
At this point, it’s impossible to take the Guardians moneyline with any confidence. However, the Yankees have looked out of sorts on offense recently. The one biggest constant in this matchup is Fried, who remains a legitimate Cy Young contender. Cecconi, while unproven, has shown signs of growth over the past few weeks. Could that be enough to steal a win in the Bronx? Doubtful, but perhaps New York’s bats will struggle once again tonight. Even if the home team finds success at the plate, it’s difficult envisioning the same from Cleveland.
Best Bet: Guardians Yankees under 8.5 runs (-115)
Another Fried masterclass keeps this one low-scoring, regardless of what Judge and company do on offense.
