It all comes down to this: 336 minutes, plus overtime, on the basketball court. Can the Oklahoma City Thunder complete their historic season with a championship?
They won’t if the Indiana Pacers have anything to say about it. For the Pacers to pull off an upset — currently, the Thunder are -650 favorites to win it all — they’ll need some three-point shooting heroics from Aaron Nesmith, who won Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals nearly single-handedly by hitting six triples in the last five minutes of the game. Game 1 of the NBA Finals will tip off tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET in Oklahoma City.
Indiana is a 10-point underdog at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set for 230. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Nesmith.
Best Aaron Nesmith Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Aaron Nesmith U11.5 Points (-110)
Nesmith’s offensive role fluctuated wildly throughout the Eastern Conference Finals, as he scored 30 in the opening game before recording 16 or fewer in each of the subsequent five games, including two single-digit performances. His playing time also dropped: while he played 32 or more minutes in both Games 1 and 2, he didn’t even reach 20 minutes in either Games 5 or 6, as in the last four games of the series, he only shot 36.4% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc. The fact that he was whistled for two personal fouls in the first quarter of Game 6 didn’t help, especially not after getting called for fouls early in the first and third quarters of Game 5. Among players who appeared in more than one round, Nesmith has the second-most foul-prone these playoffs.
Part of it is the players he guarded — his three most common assignments were Jalen Brunson, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Donovan Mitchell, who ranked first, second, and seventh in free throw attempts in these playoffs. That’s unlikely to change if he guards MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who may be the single most cerebral contact-initiator in the league. Gilgeous-Alexander baited the Minnesota Timberwolves’ Jaden McDaniels into 11 fouls across the first two games of the Western Conference Finals, and unless Andrew Nembhard is truly getting fried by Gilgeous-Alexander, Nesmith won’t get enough minutes to reach 12 points.
Aaron Nesmith 1+ Rebounds in the 1st 3 Minutes (+115)
I’m not positive how many minutes Nesmith will end up playing overall, depending on how quickly Gilgeous-Alexander can get him into foul trouble, but he’ll obviously be in the game for at least the first three minutes, which should give him a chance to snag at least one board. For a six-foot-six, perimeter-oriented player, Nesmith is a pretty good rebounder, as he had 12 boards in the closeout game against the Milwaukee Bucks and 13 in the closeout game against the Cleveland Cavaliers and recorded seven or more boards seven separate times these playoffs. He’s had the third-most rebound chances on the team so far these playoffs and converted his rebound chances at the third-highest rate among the eight Pacers who have played at least 200 total minutes.
His ceiling should be plenty high against the Thunder, whose lack of rebounding prowess is their one true weakness. So far these playoffs, Oklahoma City has allowed the second-most rebounds per game and posted the sixth-lowest rebounding percentage, and the Thunder also tend not to box out very frequently, especially on offense. Gilgeous-Alexander’s drives will also drag Nesmith into the paint, where he’s more likely to grab a board, either off a Gilgeous-Alexander missed layup or a kick-out triple. So far these playoffs, Nesmith has averaged 1.1 first-quarter rebounds per game.
