The Philadelphia Phillies will look to build on their dominant 8-3 victory as they face the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 2 of this week’s interleague series. With both teams featuring potent offenses and volatile pitching matchups, the total of 9.0 runs presents significant value, based on each team’s recent form. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Blue Jays and the Phillies.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Blue Jays vs. Phillies prediction, preview
First, let’s acknowledge the contrasting form of the two starting pitchers. Mick Abel, the Phillies’ young prodigy, twirled a stunning MLB debut, throwing six shutout innings against the Pirates. It was a small sample, but his performance was exceptional. Abel showed impressive command with a 0.83 WHIP. He struck out nine, as well, and generated seven whiffs on his fastball. Abel may not replicate that performance, but against a Blue Jays lineup that struggles against righties, he will be in position to keep Toronto’s bats in check.
On the other hand, Jose Berrios for the Blue Jays is no stranger to high variance. Though he pitched well against the Athletics, he’s historically struggled against the Phillies. His 7.47 ERA in three career starts against Philadelphia is concerning. While his stuff can be dominant, Berrios tends to give up the long ball and walks. The Phillies, ranking fifth in wOBA against righties (.327), can exploit these weaknesses. Nick Castellanos (a .348 wOBA vs. RHP), Bryce Harper (a .416 wOBA vs. RHP), and Kyle Schwarber (a .373 wOBA vs. RHP) are poised to capitalize if Berrios falters.
Turning to the Blue Jays’ offense, they’ve been heating up recently. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with a .379 wOBA against righties, is a constant threat. He’s been driving the ball with power, sporting a 40.4% hard-hit rate and 13 home runs. Bo Bichette (a .367 wOBA vs. RHP) has also been exceptional, ranking third on the team in total offensive value. George Springer, though inconsistent, has shown life, registering a .318 wOBA in the past 14 days. Addison Barger has become a massive deal in the five-slot of this lineup, with a .389 average over his last eight games, and home runs in four straight games.. This offense can explode if Abel leaves pitches over the plate. The key for Toronto will be sustaining production against the Phillies’ pitchers, especially Abel, if he’s in debut form. I believe he’ll be sharp.
Looking at both bullpens, the Phillies’ pen has struggled recently, posting a 4.94 ERA over the past 10 days. However, Seranthony Dominguez remains its keystone, with a 3.23 FIP and 11.2 K/9. The Blue Jays’ pen has been sharper, posting a 2.55 ERA in the same stretch. They can keep games close, and under the total line
Phillies vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
The weather will also play a role, with the roof likely closed at Rogers Centre. While this favors hitters, both teams feature pitchers capable of mitigating damage. Abel’s ability to manage games with a low WHIP, coupled with Berrios’s weak contact allowed (he’s in the 75th percentile for average exit velocity), supports a low-scoring game.
Recent trends support the under. The Phillies have hit the under in 16 of their last 25 road games, and the Blue Jays have gone under in nine of their last 10 interleague matchups. In games between two winning teams like this one, the under 9.0 has been historically profitable, and there’s a specific and relatively-fresh sample size we can point to.
Expect a closer game with defensive adjustments and pitching dominance. Despite both offenses’ power, this game has all the ingredients for a low final score.
Best bet: Blue Jays vs. Phillies u9.0 runs (+100)
Berrios allows weak contact in the 75th percentile among pitchers—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
