The Royals stunned the Cardinals 10-7 in the series opener, and now, in the second game of this three-game series, Kansas City (+150) is set to test St. Louis (-182) again at Busch Stadium. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Royals and the Cardinals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cardinals vs. Royals prediction, preview
Kansas City’s Noah Cameron (2-1, 1.05 ERA) has been lights out so far this season, including a solid outing against the Cardinals earlier in May. Cameron ranks in the 92nd percentile for barrel percentage, a key indicator of his ability to limit hard contact and keep hitters off-balance. His low ERA and superb 0.82 WHIP make him a prime candidate to outpitch the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas (4-2, 3.90 ERA), who’s been solid but hasn’t had the same explosive impact this year. Mikolas ranks in the 29th percentile in barrel percentage and the 33rd percentile in expected ERA, showing signs of regression despite his steady surface stats.
Cameron has kept opponents to just a .144 batting average, a testament to his dominance. His K/9 rate of 5.6 is on the lower end, but he more than compensates with his ability to induce weak contact. His fastball-heavy approach keeps hitters off-balance, especially against a Cardinals lineup that ranks 24th in home runs and has struggled to generate power this season. Meanwhile, Mikolas, while steady, has shown some regression. His fastball velocity has dropped by 1.8 mph this season, further indicating potential issues with his long-term effectiveness. His xFIP of 4.90 suggests he might not sustain his current level of success.
For the Royals, Bobby Witt Jr. continues to lead the offense, sitting at a team-high .287 average and adding a slugging percentage of .494. Witt ranks in the 91st percentile for sprint speed, which adds a dynamic element to his offensive profile, especially on the bases. His presence in the lineup can’t be overlooked—he’s been a key contributor to the Royals’ surprise success in a season otherwise dominated by offensive struggles. Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino provide support, but Kansas City still struggles with consistency, ranking 28th in the league in runs per game (3.3). Despite this, their defense and pitching—ranked fourth in ERA (3.19)—have kept them in games.
On the other hand, the Cardinals’ offense has been inconsistent despite their strong start to the season. Brendan Donovan (.321 average, .384 OBP) leads the charge, and Lars Nootbaar’s eight home runs add some cavalry in the pop department. Donovan’s walk rate of 13.5% ranks him in the 87th percentile, showcasing his ability to get on base and create scoring opportunities. However, their lack of home-run production (24th in MLB) against pitchers like Cameron, who excels at limiting power, is concerning. St. Louis has been more effective at home, boasting a 19-9 record at Busch Stadium, but their recent form, combined with Mikolas’ so/so pedigree, makes them tough to trust at -182.
Royals vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
When evaluating betting trends, the Royals are 6-5 in their last 11 meetings with the Cardinals and have a strong 3-1 record against Mikolas in their recent outings. Moreover, Kansas City has excelled as underdogs, going 7-1 in their last eight games as such. St. Louis, meanwhile, has a 1-3 record in their last four games and has struggled to cover the run line in recent matchups against teams with winning records.
Given Cameron’s dominance, the Royals’ solid bullpen (fourth in ERA), and the Cardinals’ struggles to generate power, the value is clear. Despite being the underdogs, Kansas City has the pitching edge, and with Mikolas’ inconsistency, they can take advantage. I’m backing the Royals (+105) to steal another victory tonight.
Best bet: Royals (+105) at Cardinals
Royals steal back-to-back victories—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
