The ultra-competitive NL West is about to write a new chapter as we enter the summer and the MLB settles in for the long backstretch. The the reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers sit atop the division, but the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants are in close pursuit. Right now, Los Angeles is 37-24, with San Diego one game behind and San Francisco four games off the pace.
In tonight’s contest, the Padres’ Nick Pivetta will crest the hill against the Giants’ Kyle Harrison in the final contest of a three-game set. San Diego will be going for the sweep after prevailing in extra innings in each of the first two.
Let’s break down this highly-anticipated matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Padres at Giants prediction, preview
Each of the first two games of the series have been low-scoring affairs, and there’s no reason to think that the finale will be any different. Both of these pitching staffs have been elite, with the ninth- and 10th-best WHIPs in baseball so far, and they’re both sending strong starters to the mound for the finale. Pivetta’s 2.74 ERA ranks eighth in the NL this season, and he’s in hot form, having gone six innings and given up two or fewer earned runs in each start. Harrison, meanwhile, has only thrown 14.1 innings this season across two starts and four relief appearances, but in his starts, he’s pitched a total of nine innings, giving up just six hits and two earned runs. Harrison is a fastball specialist, throwing a 95.3-MPH four-seamer on some 66 percent of his pitches that would rank in the top quintile by run value if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify.
Plus, both teams’ bullpens should be fairly well-rested; the Padres got eight innings from just two pitchers yesterday and the Giants got 6.1 from starter Landen Roupp. Plus, on Monday, San Francisco starter Logan Webb pitched eight innings of shutout ball. These healthy bullpens should keep the offenses at bay once again; the Giants’ bullpen has posted the league’s best WHIP this season, while San Diego sits in fourth. San Francisco manager Bob Melvin should trust Harrison, even if his expected ERA is nearly two points higher than his actual mark, but if Harrison shows any signs of struggle, the Giants’ bullpen should do its job.
Both teams’ offenses have been a little cold as of late; during the month of May, the Padres ranked just 25th in OPS and San Francisco 23rd. Fernando Tatís Jr. was slashing .345/.409/.602 with eight home runs, looking like an MVP candidate. Since then, he has slashed just .186/.270/.354, and though he’s hit an additional five home runs in 29 games, that’s clearly not what San Diego was hoping for. For the Giants, marquee offseason signing Willy Adames has been a negative-WAR player and was below the Mendoza Line as recently as April 23 while providing below-average defense, and Mike Yastrzemski has slashed .200/.286/.250 since the start of May as well.
Padres at Giants pick, best bet
Best Bet: Nick Pivetta to Record a Win (+145)
While Harrison showed plenty of positive signs in his first two starts back in the rotation, there’s a reason why San Francisco sent him to the bullpen after last season. He’s gotten fairly lucky — his 2.51 ERA is much better than his 3.91 FIP figure, and he’s benefited from an unsustainable .188 opponent batting average on balls in play — and the Padres are seven ranks better against lefties than they are against righties in OPS. Harrison’s starts came against terrible offenses, while Pivetta’s recorded quality starts against the Braves, Cubs, Tigers, and Mariners.
Strong Lean: Under 7 Runs (-102)
Each of the first two games of the series came in under the total, and both offenses are struggling. Just because San Diego should be able to get to Harrison more than the Giants can get to Pivetta doesn’t mean that more than seven runs will be scored. Oracle Park is the third-most pitcher-friendly park in the majors, and San Francisco has the fourth-lowest home ERA in the league and also scored the seventh-fewest runs at home.
