This season hasn’t gone as planned for the Boston Red Sox. The same thing can be said for the Los Angeles Angels.
Los Angeles has had tough sledding for over a decade. It has the longest postseason drought in the major leagues, dating back to 2014. It’s not for a lack of trying. They’ve had big contracts, multiple all-time superstars, but nothing to show for it. That kind of frustration builds and builds, and there’s no end in sight. Dipping under .500 already, it’s unlikely for the drought to end this year.
The Red Sox also find themselves under .500 and searching for answers. They’ve acquired a true ace in Garrett Crochet, but the rest of the staff is struggling. Alex Bregman is everything they’ve paid for and more, yet only he and Rafael Devers are hitting at a high level. It’s a frustrating situation for the Sox, and one they’re looking to rectify as soon as possible.
The Red Sox enter at -130 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The run total is set at 10. Let’s take a look at the best bets for Wednesday’s game.
Angels vs. Red Sox Pick and Prediction
Over 10 Total Runs (-108)
If you like a good old-fashioned pitching duel, this isn’t your game.
José Soriano takes the mound for the Angels in this one. His statistical profile is quite interesting. Half of the pitches he throws are of the sinker variety, and it’s no surprise that has resulted in a 99th percentile ground ball rate. But that’s about where the good times end. He walks a lot of batters, gives up hard contact, and has turned in a below-average xERA. That’s not an abject disaster; every rotation needs a good innings eater. But that’s about where his ceiling has capped out.
Lucas Giolito, on the other hand, might be a disaster. After missing all of 2024 with a UCL tear, the former top prospect is off to a rough start in Boston. Per Baseball Savant, batters facing Giolito have a .303 expected batting average. His expected ERA is 11th percentile among starting pitchers. This Angels offense is nothing special, but Giolito has made pedestrian offenses look elite on more than one occasion this season.
The Sox have a good offense facing a pitcher due for regression. The Angels have an okay offense against a disastrous pitcher. Even at the high total, this adds up to an over for me.
