This will be the final game of a three-game series in Toronto.
Jesus Luzardo is scheduled to pitch for Philadelphia while Chris Bassitt should get the nod for Toronto.
Phillies at Blue Jays prediction, preview
Jesus Luzardo had a rough 2024, posting a 5 ERA across 12 starts, then getting shut down with an injury. Prior to last season, Luzardo posted strikeout rates of 30% and 28.1%. He’s baaaaack. Through 70.1 innings, the strikeout rate is 27.4% while the walk rate is 7.4%. He’s allowed five home runs and been better than the 3.58 ERA indicates. The FIP is 2.67 while the BABIP is an elevated .358.
Right-handed batters have had some success against Luzardo, slashing .289/.353/.418 with all five home runs. Luzardo has been much better on the road than at home.
Now, the big elephant in the room is that Luzardo got pummeled for 12 earned runs in 3.1 innings during his most recent start. Prior to that, he struck out 10 batters in two starts.
Against left-handed pitching, the Blue Jays have struck out at the 27th-highest rate while having the 14th-best ISO. The wOBA is sixth-best in MLB.
Chris Bassitt has been solid in 66.1 innings this season. The 3.57 FIP is slightly better than the 3.8 ERA. While he’s only averaging 91.4 mph on the fastball, Bassitt has a 23.9% strikeout rate and 10.2% swinging strike rate. The average exit velocity is 88.2 mph with a barrel rate of 8.4% and hard hit rate of 39.1%.
Lefties have crushed Bassitt, slashing .321/.367/.500 with five of the nine home runs hit against him. Bassitt has been better at home than on the road.
Bassitt has six starts allowing one or fewer runs. Yippee! Unfortunately, he has four starts allowing at least four earned runs. In his two most recent starts, he gave up five earned runs in each contest.
The Phillies have struck out at the 20th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being seventh in ISO. The wOBA is seventh-best.
As for bullpens, Philadelphia has the 18th-lowest FIP while Toronto has the sixth-lowest.
Phillies at Blue Jays pick, best bet
I like Luzardo to bounce back well from his last outing, so I don’t expect many runs from the Blue Jays. Maybe one or two. Bassitt struggles against lefties, and Philadelphia has two of the most potent lefties in MLB. I think the Phillies will have some success, but I’m not seeing an avalanche of runs in the forecast.
